KY Dems capitalize on Trump’s bad image to flip US House seat, make legislative inroads

While Zach Dembo’s win in central Kentucky allowed the state to take a part in Democrats’ nationwide “blue tsunami,” part of that wave trickled down to the Kentucky General Assembly. 

Nine Republican incumbents were ousted from their seats Tuesday evening, most with close margins in suburban areas of the state. Most of those lawmakers are from areas surrounding the largest city in Kentucky, Louisville. Republicans still maintain a supermajority in the House and Senate. 

In a statement Wednesday morning after dust settled, Kentucky Democratic Party Chairman Colmon Elridge celebrated the seat flips and Democratic incumbents who maintained their seats. 

“Together, these leaders will rein in the GOP’s cruel, hyperpartisan supermajorities that have pushed Kentuckians to the side and taken corporate orders to kill popular, bipartisan bills on affordable housing, healthcare and data centers,” Elridge said. 

However, Tres Watson, a former spokesman for the Republican Party of Kentucky, said the midterms were a bad environment for Republicans and President Donald Trump.

“The people that we lost — both nationally and in the General Assembly here in Kentucky — we didn’t lose the hardcore MAGA people. We lost the center-right folks who were in competitive, potentially competitive districts, who weren’t Trumpers themselves, but they had that R behind their name, and that’s what that’s what people were mad at,” Watson said. “And because of the demographics of the districts, they were the most vulnerable to it.”

One incumbent Democrat, Rep. Adam Moore of Lexington, held his seat in the 45th House District with 54% of the vote over Republican challenger and former state Rep. Killian Timoney, who had 46% of the vote. Wednesday morning, Moore said the changes in the General Assembly for his caucus were because “Kentuckians are sick of a supermajority that just focuses on culture wars instead of bringing down costs for Kentuckians.” Moore pointed to mailers and attack ads within several of the statehouse races, including his own. 

“I think the mood today has to be celebratory, but also purposeful. We’re not going to go in there and say, ‘Hey, look at us. We have 26 seats now. We pass all the laws.’ … It’s the first time in a while that we have actually grown the Democratic caucus in Frankfort, and so that’s what we needed,” Moore said. “That was the giant step for Kentucky Democrats, but it’s only a small step in that direction towards getting back towards a majority.”

Flipping the 6th

Moore, whose state House district falls within the 6th Congressional District, said he did feel like that race influenced his. Dembo, the Democratic candidate there, won over Republican Ralph Alvarado by about 10 points Tuesday. The seat had been in Republican hands since 2012. 

“I think Zach Dembo was going to win regardless of who the Republican candidate was, but he won because of the national tide. Also, he is a great candidate, someone who has served in uniform, has served in the Beshear administration, has served as a prosecutor, and is now going to serve us in Congress,” Moore said. 

The lawmaker added that he viewed Alvarado as a candidate with “way too much baggage.” Dembo’s campaign repeatedly highlighted that Alvarado, a former state senator, was former Gov. Matt Bevin’s running mate in 2019. Gov. Andy Beshear, who endorsed and campaigned with Dembo this year, defeated Bevin. 

Speaking to the Kentucky Lantern at Dembo’s watch party Tuesday, Elridge called Alvarado “a uniquely bad candidate,” while Dembo was “a uniquely great candidate” and  connected with voters over “the frustrations that people in the district felt.” 

“I think his biggest misstep was that he ran,” Elridge said of Alvarado. “Now, I’m thankful for him that he ran. I think it was a great misstep that we capitalized on. But frankly, I also believe … we would have beat whoever they ran because the Republican Party right now has a Trump problem, and they are so beholden to him that no candidate that came out of that primary was going to abandon Trump and his policies.”

Trump endorsed Alvarado ahead of the May primary. 

Trey Grayson, a former Republican secretary of state, said Dembo “ran a really good campaign” and was bolstered by national Democratic support. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named the seat as a district in play and put the race on its Red to Blue program. Like Watson, Grayson also pointed to a bad national environment for Republicans heading into midterms. Grayson said Alvarado did run a good campaign in the 6th. 

Asked if Tuesday night signaled that Republican candidates need to pivot from Trump, Grayson said two narratives came up. Suburban and urban areas showed “a clear message from those voters about Trump,” but in rural Kentucky areas, Republicans continued to win. 

“The reality is that Trump’s a lame duck. He’ll be leaving office in two years. He’s likely going to receive or should receive a lot of political blame for what happened nationwide, and that’s going to weaken him,” Grayson said. “So, in some respects, the separation from Trump will kind of happen naturally, given all those factors. … When you try to attach yourself to the hip of Trump when it’s good, and then it’s hard to detach yourself from the same hip when all of a sudden it was bad.”