Kansas attorney general’s race nears toss-up designation in ‘Democratic-leaning midterm’

OLATHE — The Kansas attorney general’s race is the latest to gain recognition from national political observers, who began cautiously adding to Democrats’ November chances following the August primaries.

In a rematch from four years ago, Attorney General Kris Kobach, the Republican, is still favored to beat attorney and former law enforcement officer Chris Mann, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election forecasting arm of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, readjusted its rating of the race from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican,” which is closer to a toss-up than a safe Republican seat. 

“Kobach’s hardline approach to such issues as immigration were once out of the Republican mainstream, but his style and substance is more at home in the MAGA-focused second Trump term. The question is how well that will play in a more Democratic-leaning midterm,” wrote Louis Jacobson, senior columnist for the politics center.

Republicans are still predicted to clinch key statewide and federal offices, including the Attorney General’s Office, the U.S. Senate and the governor’s seat, which has been held by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly for the past eight years. 

“Democrats getting a credible contender for U.S. Senate, as well as governor, probably helps Mann’s odds,” Jacobson said.

On Aug. 4, Sabato’s Crystal Ball adjusted the U.S. Senate rating from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican” after the Rev. Adam Hamilton won a crowded Democratic primary. He faces Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall.

Mann and Kobach faced off in 2022, when Mann lost by fewer than two percentage points.

Both the Democratic Attorney General’s Association and the Republican Attorney General’s Association have waded into Kansas, backing their respective party candidates with campaigning and advertising support.

The Republican group announced on Aug. 25 a $7 million, 13-state ad blitz that included a mix of digital and TV ads in Kansas. It described its effort as an “aggressive early offensive barrage.”

“RAGA will spend more this year politically than in any year in its 27-year history, and the stakes have never been higher,” said Adam Piper, the group’s executive director, in a news release. 

The Democratic group on Thursday criticized Kobach’s involvement with the nonprofit We Build the Wall. During his 2020 U.S. Senate campaign, Kobach violated federal election and campaign finance laws when he purchased and used the nonprofit’s 295,000-person donor list for under market value.

Kobach acknowledged to reporters Thursday that “there’s going to be a lot of outside spending” on the Kansas attorney general’s race leading up to November.

“But as a candidate, it doesn’t really change my strategy,” Kobach said. “I’m still running on the same record. I’ve still got the money that I’ve raised, and I’m going to spend it the way I’m going to spend it in terms of the advertising and things we do.”

Mann said his campaign has raised four times as much as Kobach’s in 2026. He raised about $787,000 from Jan. 1 to July 23 while Kobach raised roughly $196,000, according to state campaign finance records. Kobach had $607,000 on hand going into the Aug. 4 primary, and Mann had about $643,000.

“Those are all from the small-dollar donors,” Mann said. “I think our average donation is around $150. Eighty-three percent are from Kansas, and we’re proud of that number. If other organizations want to spend in this race on my behalf, then that’s up to them, and, frankly, we have to be able to combat the dark money that’s coming at us. So we’ll make sure that we have the resources we need to do that.”