Democrats predicted to flip US House, but margins unclear as first polls close

WASHINGTON — Democrats are largely expected to regain control of the U.S. House once all ballots are counted in this year’s midterm elections, though it will likely take days or even weeks to know just how many seats the party will pick up. 

The Associated Press, which States Newsroom looks to for the projected winner of congressional races, had called 17 House districts for Democrats and 9 for Republicans as of 8 p.m. Eastern. None of those races were considered especially competitive.

The magic number for House control is 218, but each additional lawmaker beyond that will make passing bills less challenging for New York Democratic Rep. Hakeem Jeffries who is expected to become the first Black speaker. 

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter expects Democrats to win an additional 15 to 25 seats, giving the party somewhere between 230 and 240 lawmakers when the next session of Congress begins in January.

Erin Covey, the House editor at Cook, wrote in her election night guide that “the battle for control of the House largely runs through the midwest and the South — in particular Florida and Texas. Both states report their votes relatively quickly, so early results in several key battleground House districts could portend the size of the wave.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia projects Democrats will ultimately win 239 seats, a significant jump from the 214 the party currently holds.

Director of Communications Kyle Kondik and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman wrote in their final projections the “political environment this year always seemed challenging for Republicans, and there’s been no real signs of recovery at the end of the cycle.”

What will a Democratic House do?

The final margin will have a significant impact on what Democrats can accomplish in the chamber. 

A Democratic-led House will have major implications for the last two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, which so far has benefited from Republican control of Congress. 

Democrats are likely to launch a series of investigations — and possibly impeachment proceedings — into the president and members of his administration.

The simmering tension between the two parties is only projected to grow amid divided government, but Republicans and Democrats will need to work together on issues like government funding if they want to avoid more record-setting shutdowns. 

It could take a while to determine control of the House and Senate due to a variety of state laws, including ranked-choice voting in some, and possible recounts of tight races. It took about eight days for House control to be determined following the 2022 midterm elections.

Early voting for the 2026 midterms eclipsed the 2022 elections’ record early voting turnout of nearly 46 million. More than 61 million voters cast an early ballot either by mail or in person this year, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. 

Bellwether Florida races

While the final party breakdown may not be known on election night, certain races in Florida could help predict how large of a blue wave will be seen.

Covey, from the Cook Political Report, said during an event Monday three races in the Sunshine State are important to watch as early results filter in on election night. 

“This is a state that’s known for counting quite fast,” she said. “We could get results very quickly in as many as eight, nine seats that could be competitive in this state.”

Covey expects Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz to secure reelection in Florida’s 25th Congressional District, but said if he’s not doing well that could be a sign Democrats aren’t going to have a better-than-expected night. 

“Florida-22 is the main race that I would keep an eye on,” she said, referring to the open seat where Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar are on the ballot. The state’s Republican legislature redrew the district to modestly favor Republicans, but Cook rates it as a toss-up.

“Not a lot is really known about them, so this will be a good test of generic Republican versus generic Democrat,” Covey said, later adding that if Dandiya does well, it would signal a blue wave. 

A Democratic win in Florida’s 16th Congressional District, another open seat, would likely mean a significant number of victories are in store for Democrats, since it's rated as a likely Republican win by Cook. 

Covey said the district is “surprisingly competitive” and that if the race is close it could signal “a really, really terrible night for the GOP.”

Overall, Republican efforts to redraw congressional districts to their advantage in several states hasn’t really paid off, she said. 

“The environment is so bad for Republicans that they are going to flip very few, if any, seats at all just due to redistricting alone,” Covey said. “At this point, there are really only two automatic flips for Republicans that come as a result of redistricting.”