The biggest questions looming over Arkansas’ midterm election

Is Arkansas going to be part of a blue wave, or is the state going to be a red holdout?

Tuesday’s midterm election comes as Democrats hope a favorable national environment could create upsets in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide or federal office in 16 years. 

Early voting has been underway for more than two weeks, but thousands of ballots are yet to be cast. Arkansas’ midterm election has several closely watched races for U.S. Senate, governor and Congress. It also features some heated races for the Legislature and four measures lawmakers placed on the ballot. You can find the Arkansas Advocate’s election coverage here.

Here are some of the top races to watch in Tuesday’s results:

US Senate: Can Democrats pull off an upset?

Twelve years ago, Republican Sen. Tom Cotton was the insurgent Republican who unseated a two-term incumbent he tied to a president unpopular in the state.

This year, Democrats are hoping to do the same thing to Cotton with Hallie Shoffner as the party’s nominee. Shoffner and Libertarian Jeff Wadlin are challenging Cotton, who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Cotton and Republican allies have outspent Shoffner, and recent polling has moved the race in the Republican lawmaker’s favor.

But Democrats hope that President Donald Trump’s low approval numbers along with discontent over the Iran war and fuel prices could help the party in a solidly Republican state.

US House: Is central Arkansas capable of being flipped?

This isn’t the first time national Democrats have believed Republican U.S. Rep. French Hill’s 2nd District seat was within reach. 

The party focused heavily on efforts in 2018 and 2020 to unseat Hill in the central Arkansas district, but fell short. This time, they think they have another opening with Democrat Chris Jones’ challenge.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has labeled the seat as one it believes can be flipped, and Jones has had the support of national Democrats like Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

Hill has also had support from outside groups, including cryptocurrency-focused political action committees, that are running ads backing his bid.

The state’s other three Republican U.S. House members also face challenges in Tuesday’s election, but Hill’s seat is expected to be the most competitive.

Arkansas Legislature: A crack in Republicans’ supermajority?

Tuesday night will test whether Republicans will maintain their grip on the state Legislature, with Democrats hoping to break the 75-vote supermajority needed to pass most budget bills in the House.

A key part of Democrats’ strategy is Washington County, where the party hopes to make gains and unseat Republican Rep. Steve Unger.

Other heated House races include the campaign for a Maumelle-area district between Republican Stephen Bright and Democrat Cassandra Mayes. 

In the Senate, Democrat Allison Grigsby Sweatman and Republican Rep. Brandon Achor are vying for outgoing Republican Sen. Jane English’s seat. 

Governor’s race: What impact will Libertarian bid have?

Polling and fundraising numbers indicate Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders is in a comfortable position, despite the national mood about the president for whom she worked as White House press secretary.

The biggest question surrounding the governor’s race results is how much of an impact Libertarian Colt Shelby could have.

Shelby and Democratic state Sen. Fred Love are challenging Sanders on similar themes, saying the governor’s priorities have been misplaced. Love has vowed to sign an executive order repealing the state’s school voucher program under Sanders’ signature education law if he’s elected.

The election comes as Sanders raises her national profile ahead of the 2028 presidential election, authoring a book scheduled to come out a week after the midterms. 

Ballot measures: Will voters allow economic development districts?

There are four proposals going before voters that the majority-Republican Legislature put on the ballot. They include a measure aimed at strengthening the state constitution’s prohibition against noncitizen voting and another expanding the constitution’s right to bear arms.

But the proposal that could be the closest is Issue 3, a measure that would allow the creation of local economic development districts.

The proposed constitutional amendment has the backing of the state’s business lobby, the governor and a bipartisan coalition of lawmakers. 

But it’s also run into resistance from some conservatives and progressives who say the proposal leaves too many details up to the Legislature. Polling indicates a large number of voters are undecided on the issue.

A fourth proposal on the ballot would allow the state to issue up to $500 million in bonds for water and wastewater improvement projects.

AP graphics may not be republished