Eli Crane barely hangs onto his seat in Arizona’s second congressional district

Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane will keep his seat representing Arizona’s second congressional district after an unexpectedly tight race with former president of the Navajo Nation, Jonathan Nez. 

After almost a week of counting, The Associated Press called the race on Monday for Crane, who had a 1.2 percentage point lead over Nez.

“I’m going to keep fighting against the status quo in Congress,” Crane said in a statement posted to social media. “Both parties have been driving this country into the ground for decades, and the American people are sick of it.” 

Crane, a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus and 2020 election denier, has remained loyal to President Donald Trump, even as his approval ratings have been in a freefall for much of the past year. 

He voted last year for Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” which made massive cuts to the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program and to Medicaid, and repeatedly voted to allow Trump to unilaterally go to war with Iran — a conflict now in its eighth month. Following those votes, Crane scrubbed his website of his previous opposition to spending money on foreign “forever wars.”

Two years ago, Crane easily defeated Nez by nine percentage points, but polling showed the distance between the two had significantly narrowed this cycle, with a poll commissioned by Nez’s campaign in August showing him in a statistical tie with Crane in a district where Republicans have an 11-point voter registration advantage. Other polling since then showed the two neck-and-neck, with Crane slightly favored to win. 

The Nez campaign poll gave the Democrat a 22-point edge with independent voters, whose support he needs to win the race. Throughout his campaign, Nez said he counted on buyer’s remorse from those who supported Crane and Trump in 2024. 

That buyer’s remorse didn’t work out for Nez, but it completely transformed the makeup of the U.S. Congress Crane will return to next year. Democrats won majorities in both chambers, a feat that seemed impossible a year ago, and have pledged to hold Trump and his administration accountable. 

Crane thanked the voters for supporting him and commended Nez “on throwing his hat in the ring again.” 

The district is the Grand Canyon State’s largest, stretching from south of Phoenix to the borders of New Mexico in the east and Utah in the north, encompassing much of eastern and northern Arizona. 

Congressional District 2 covers about 60% of Arizona, and tribal land makes up a large portion of it. The district includes 14 tribes in northern, eastern and central Arizona, and those tribal members make up about 20% of the district’s total population.

Outside groups poured money into the race during the final weeks of the campaign, with about $5.3 million from groups backing Crane and $2.4 million to boost Nez. A big chunk of the outside money backing Crane, about $3.4 million, came from the No Going Back PAC, a recently-formed Republican PAC that received $200 million from MAGA-Inc.

About $1 million of the outside funding supporting Nez came from the House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC overseen by top Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. 

Crane himself raised more than $11.9 million to fund his reelection bid to Nez’s $5.8 million, according to campaign finance reports. 

Crane grew up in Yuma and dropped out of the University of Arizona to join the U.S. Navy shortly after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. After 13 years in the Navy and six deployments, Crane co-founded Bottle Breacher, a company that sells bottle openers made from used bullet casings. Crane and his wife took the business on the TV show “Shark Tank” in 2014, and sold the business in 2022. 

During his time in office, Crane has introduced legislation focused on veterans, the military, public lands, natural resources and immigration.