Seven paragraphs to ponder as Kansas voters behold a blue wave gathering strength

Election season in Kansas, usually a fairly sedate affair with the exception of scattered gubernatorial races, has become a surprise scramble in the shadow of a national blue wave.

The ridiculous rhetoric and squirrelly stories have multiplied so quickly that this single opinion editor can barely keep pace. It doesn’t help that I launched a book last week, shortly after my child broke his hip (no that wasn’t a typo, and I will be writing on that subject eventually).

In a no-doubt vain attempt to stem the raging news torrent, here are seven short paragraphs on seven separate subjects. I’ll try to summarize where we are and what we know this first full week of October, heading straight toward the 2026 Kansas midterm elections.

Is it legal for Democrats to run in Kansas?

That’s a question you might ask yourself watching recent events. U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall’s campaign threatened Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton with a cease-and-desist letter over an ad about his patient billing practices. Meanwhile, Kansas GOP executive director Rob Fillion filed a complaint against Democrat Katy Tyndell, who is running against 4th District U.S. Rep. Ron Estes. All this GOP gnashing of teeth makes me wonder: If that blue waves sweeps Democrats to victories across Kansas, will Republicans files legal complaints against the rest of them?

Trying to define a Kansas Republican

State Republican Party Chairwoman Deidre Herbert — who also works as Attorney General Kris Kobach’s spokeswoman — on Friday claimed that former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden wasn’t a real Republican. This came after he followed another former Republican governor, Bill Graves, in endorsing Hamilton. Herbert wrote on Twitter: “This guy was run out of office by a pro-life Dem who was MORE conservative than him. Fiscally. Socially. In all ways. He hasn’t been a ‘Republican’ ever.” Back in 2018, Herbert said that beloved former Republican U.S. Sen. Nancy Kassebaum was one of a parade of “tired has-beens clinging to the past, pretending to be Republicans,” after endorsing Gov. Laura Kelly. Sounds like the party wants an ever-smaller tent.

Does Trump secretly hate Roger Marshall?

Immigrations and Customs Enforcement descended on Southwest Kansas last month, arresting undocumented immigrants and terrifying locals. Both Marshall and U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran cautioned federal officials, and industry groups complained about disruptions. Given the brewing blue wave, I find myself wondering if President Donald Trump perhaps wants Marshall to lose. Perhaps he just fervently dislikes him. What better way to make Kansas’ junior senator look ineffectual than slamming the brakes on a key industry and driving up beef prices?

But then why would he plan a visit?

A Politico article from Friday contains this tantalizing tidbit: “President Donald Trump is expected to travel to at least 10 states in the final four weeks of the campaign, … includ(ing) traditional Senate battlegrounds — Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia — as well as red states the president won by double-digits in 2024: Texas, Iowa, Alaska, Ohio and Kansas.” Apparently Trump doesn’t actually want Marshall to lose, as he’s following up Vice President J.D. Vance with his own Sunflower State sojourn. I haven’t seen anything announced officially yet, so stay tuned. Plans change.

Peering into the Masterson-Holscher polling

Recent polls have shown Senate President Ty Masterson ahead of Democrat Cindy Holscher in the Kansas governor’s race. The most recent was a New York Times/Siena University survey putting him four percentage points ahead. That may well be true, but I find it difficult to imagine a situation in which Hamilton topples Marshall and a Democrat runs so far behind in the governor’s race. Why? Despite Kansas’ historic moderation, Masterson has been a red-blooded conservative in the Statehouse. What’s more, his sloganeering about taking back Kansas makes no sense given that he’s served in the Legislature for (ahem) 22 years.

National pundit makes one curious choice

Look, I’m sure Scott Morgan is a perfectly nice man. But as a third-party candidate for Kansas secretary of state, he doesn’t have a realistic shot of winning. In the meantime, Democrat Jennifer Day is running against Republican Rep. Pat Proctor. The latter has repeatedly crossed the line with irresponsible rhetoric. So why on earth would Washington, D.C.’s Bill Kristol jet into Kansas for an appearance with Morgan? Does he understand the dynamics of the race? Who does he want to win? Does he think his appearance will help accomplish that? I’m just asking questions.

So what’s going to happen, anyway?

I complained for months about the lack of high-quality polling in Kansas. How can one write knowledgeably about Kansans’ beliefs, I wondered, if we don’t ask them? Well, pollsters have come to the rescue. As noted earlier, we now have multiple data points for the governor and U.S. Senate races. But with that information on have, I have become more cautious. We will either see an earthquake in state politics or more of the same — and each scenario seems perfectly plausible. Depending on my mood, I can make a case for either.

As I wrote Saturday, the next few weeks will prove key. Stay alert, stay informed, and I’ll check in soon.

Clay Wirestone is Kansas Reflector opinion editor. His first book, “Opinionated: Kansas Journalists Who Proved Why Commentary Matters — Then and Now,” was published in September 2026 by the University Press of Kansas. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here.