Make a low-risk bet, then brag: Explaining Trump’s endorsement of South Dakota’s governor

In politics, as in comedy, timing is everything. That brings us to the curious timing of President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Gov. Larry Rhoden.

Any of the four candidates in the Republican primary for governor would have welcomed a Trump endorsement and ridden it to victory. While the president’s poll numbers are at an all-time low nationally, he has carried South Dakota with more than 60% of the vote all three times he’s been on the ballot. There’s little doubt that his endorsement could have influenced the outcome.

None of the four candidates were in closer proximity to Trump than U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson. His few disagreements with the MAGA party line were used against him in primary election attack ads. Despite their few differences, it sure looked like Johnson was trying to curry favor with the president when he sponsored legislation that would have allowed Trump to purchase the Panama Canal. (After all that has happened in the second Trump administration, his early statements about the pressing need to buy the canal now seem quaint.)

After primary and runoff, Trump endorses Republican nominee for South Dakota governor

Yet the president kept his powder dry during a primary that saw a newcomer to politics, a Trump mini-me, finish first. Throughout the primary and the runoff, Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden gave off a Trumpian vibe that suggested in the vaguest of terms that his mere presence in Pierre would raise the level of competence in state government, boost the state’s standard of living and enhance economic development.

During the runoff between Rhoden and Doeden, Trump once again stood by mute. Trump and Rhoden even shared the stage at the Fourth of July fireworks at Mount Rushmore. In the end, Trump made his “Complete and Total Endorsement” of Rhoden in a Truth Social post. It would have seemed so much more personal and genuine if, there in the shadow of the monument to democracy, he had just put his arm around Rhoden and declared that this is the guy who should be your next governor.

Obviously, the best time for Trump to issue his endorsement was during the primary or the runoff. Thousands of South Dakotans suddenly became Republicans — including yours truly — because they knew that the real contest to choose the state’s next governor was the Republican runoff, not the general election.

It’s ironic that Trump should endorse Rhoden. In the runoff, Republican voters rejected the notion of a Trump clone in the governor’s office. The word landslide comes to mind.

As heavily influential as Trump’s endorsement can be, Rhoden doesn’t need it to win his first full term as governor. In South Dakota, Democratic Party registrations lag behind independent and no-party-affiliation registrations by more than 21,000 and trail Republican registrations by almost 196,000. The numbers just don’t add up for a victory by Democratic candidate Dan Ahlers. Against numbers like those, it’s doubtful that JFK himself could get elected governor of this state.

Part of the reason for Trump’s late but “Complete” endorsement of Rhoden is his high-profile hobby of endorsing candidates. According to the website VoteHub, at this writing Trump leads the league in political endorsements with 221. No one else comes close. (It’s odd that there’s actually a website devoted to this sort of thing.)

A New York Times analysis noted that Trump has a reputation for picking winners, but there is a method that makes his winning percentage less than stellar. Trump has a penchant for picking incumbents, like Rhoden, who are more likely to win and then bragging about the power of his influence within the Republican Party. “Superficially, the math supports his claims,” the Times analysis said. “But by favoring incumbents and candidates running in uncontested races, Mr. Trump’s primary wins are built largely on low-risk bets.”

Perhaps the Rhoden camp should feel good about being considered a “low-risk bet.” That translates into a high probability of being elected.

It’s easy to wonder why Trump waited so long to make his endorsement. It’s certainly something that Rhoden doesn’t need at this point in the process in a safely Republican state like South Dakota. Maybe the president truly believes that Rhoden is the best man for the job. Or maybe he’s just hedging his bet in order to enhance the number of winners he picks during this election season.