DeSantis uncertain Florida’s redistricted congressional map can save House Republicans this fall

TAMPA — Although Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Republican-led Florida Legislature have always insisted constitutional obligations compelled their mid-decade congressional redistricting, the map was designed to add as many as four Florida Republicans to the U.S. House of Representatives.

But with Donald Trump’s approval ratings tanking and images of a Democratic blue wave emerging, DeSantis acknowledged Monday that the GOP may not net all four seats.

“This year they’re winnable, but I think that it’s going to require some effort,” the governor said Monday during a press conference in Tampa.

Florida’s redistricting was set in motion in July 2025, when the governor initially said it would be “appropriate” for the Florida Legislature to redraw the state’s 28 congressional districts because it had been “malapportioned” following the 2020 U.S. Census.

Those comments came a week after President Donald Trump, concerned House Republicans could lose their slim majority, urged Texas to redraw its congressional map to add GOP seats to Congress, and that he’d like other states to do so as well.

Later in the year, DeSantis said the state would be “forced” to redistrict because of an expected ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding the constitutionality of a part of the Voting Rights Act, and he and the Legislature would not use “partisan data” in composing a new map.

The U.S. Supreme Court did ultimately strike down that portion of the Voting Rights Act. It happened the same day the Florida House approved the new map, which left four Democratic incumbents — Tampa Bay’s Kathy Castor, Central Florida’s Darren Soto, and South Florida’s Debbie Wasserman Shultz and Jared Moskowitz — residing in heavily Republican-leaning districts.

DeSantis has previously boasted that his own redistricting map following the decennial Census saved the Republican majority in the House in 2022. That map added four Republican seats to Congress that year.

“That was partially the map but partially you know, me winning the biggest victory that Republicans had ever won in the history of governor’s races. That had a lot to do with it, too,” he said Monday.

He was less certain Florida’s new map could save the GOP this fall.

“Now in this election, obviously I’m not on the ballot,” he said. “But the political environment’s a little bit different. You’re seeing it. You’re seeing it in numbers, and when you do these midterms, it’s not necessarily just about local. It can be, but a lot of times it can be nationalized. And if there’s a certain mood in the country, that can be something that you have to combat.”

Embattled Democrats

Two of those targeted Democrats, Wasserman Schultz and Moskowitz, opted to run in different districts this year, and both won big in their primary elections last week.

Soto and Castor are running for re-election in their same districts. For Soto, his CD 9 seat went from 3.5%-plus for Kamala Harris in 2024 to one Trump won by nearly 18 points that year.

Castor has served in Congress for 20 years in a district that always leaned strongly Democratic. Now it’s Trump +10, but some political observers believe she has a chance to defeat Republican former Florida House member Mike Beltran.

DeSantis said he had spoken with the all of the Republicans now running.

“We’re helping them out in different ways, but I think that they’re all going to be competitive races for sure,” the governor said, adding that “absent major events” most voters  will know for whom they will vote by Labor Day.

Voting rights advocates and Democrats argue the map violates the Florida Constitution.

The Elias Law Group, on behalf of the Equal Ground Education Fund, filed a lawsuit the day DeSantis signed the new congressional map into law in May, contending violation of Florida’s 2010 Fair District Amendments, which prohibits drawing congressional (and state legislative) districts that favor incumbents of a political party.

The Florida Supreme Court in June rejected an emergency petition to stop the new map from taking effect. However, the underlying legal challenge remains pending.

Republicans represent 20 of the state’s 28 congressional districts. Democrats represent seven districts. They had represented eight districts, but Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned in Congressional District 20 earlier this year amid allegations of stealing federal disaster money.