Yard signs in one Kansas House district suggest Johnson County is getting bluer

OVERLAND PARK — An influx of Democrat yard signs could signal a shift toward a bluer Johnson County, even if the signs don’t align with party affiliation.

The potential shift is evident in a seven-block stretch of Overland Park — represented by Republican Rep. Carl Turner — where more than half of the 90 political yard signs favor Democrats.. Only 29% of registered voters in the district are Democrats, compared to 46% Republicans.

Democrat Ace Allen is challenging Turner again this year after losing to Turner by just 60 votes in 2022. Allen said requests for his yard sign have doubled from his campaign two years ago.

“The encouraging thing about a yard sign, as opposed to signs on the street, is that they actually indicate a voter,” Allen said.

Turner did not respond to requests for an interview.

A Columbia University study from 2015 found that the candidate with more yard signs out has an advantage, and yard signs can contribute 1-2% of votes. The study found that yard signs may be the deciding factor in local races.

“It’s not necessarily counting that yard signs equal votes. But, they can impact voters who see them and potentially help candidates,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University. “They will have positive associations with that name, and if they don’t know that much when they go in the voting booth, they may end up voting for that candidate just because they knew that name.”

Turner and Allen donate their signs to display. Former President Donald Trump sells yard signs for $24 and Vice President Kamala Harris for $20.

Of the houses where political signs were displayed in Turner’s district, it was far more common to see Harris signs than Trump signs. Beatty credits this to a new energy and excitement Harris brought to the campaign.

Traci Nauser, who displayed five Harris signs in her yard, is among the residents of Turner’s district. She is also an abortion provider whose lawsuit led to the Kansas Supreme Court ruling in 2019 that determined the state constitution’s right to bodily autonomy includes the right to terminate a pregnancy.

Nauser’s signs include one from the Harris campaign and some from other sources, like Etsy, with phrases like “Who’s the better role model for your child?” on them. Nauser said she never has had a negative interaction with a neighbor because of her signs and that she has received compliments on them, mostly for the role model sign.

Nauser said she has noticed there are fewer signs in her neighborhood compared to the 2016 and 2020 elections. She noticed more Trump than Clinton or Biden signs in the past, but sees mostly Democratic signs now. She says the shift is because of Trump.

“He’s a pathological liar and a fascist, and he’s taken away women’s reproductive rights,” Nauser said. “I think that’s a huge issue.”

Nobody answered the door at houses where Trump signs were displayed.

Beatty finds the decrease in Trump signs more difficult to explain. He said that for the last eight years, Trump supporters have been proud to display their support.

“Arguably, maybe for the first time since 2016, the Democrats are not shy about doing the same thing,” Beatty said. “It may not be that there’s so much fewer Trump signs — it’s just that for the first time since ’16, the battle has been joined.”

Beatty thinks there’s a “very high” probability that Johnson County goes bluer this election. Clinton lost the county by 2.5 percentage points in 2016, and Biden won it by 8.2 points in 2020. Beatty said abortion rights are a large reason why Johnson County may go blue again.

Signs reading “Love your neighbor,” “Do unto others,” “Unity” and “Kindness” are peppered into the political signs. These are from the Church of the Resurrection — the largest church in Kansas.

Church founder and senior pastor Adam Hamilton has never publicly endorsed a political candidate. He’s been a longtime advocate for LGBTQ+ inclusivity in the church, and declared himself “pro-life with a heavy heart” in 2022. In 2020 he supported the Black Lives Matter movement and used his churches as a vaccination site.

The church’s signs exclusively were paired with Allen and Harris signs.