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What to know about the ranked-choice tabulation for Maine’s 2nd Congressional race

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What to know about the ranked-choice tabulation for Maine’s 2nd Congressional race

Nov 11, 2024 | 10:00 am ET
By AnnMarie Hilton
What to know about the ranked-choice tabulation for Maine’s 2nd Congressional race
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Voters fill voting booths at the Cross Insurance Center in Bangor, Maine on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. (Photo by Michael G. Seamans/ Maine Morning Star)

Results are still up in the air for Maine’s closely watched 2nd Congressional District race, but the state will be one step closer to declaring a winner after the ranked-choice run-off scheduled for Tuesday. 

Even though there were only two named candidates for the 2nd Congressional District race, the race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Golden and Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault used ranked-choice voting because there was an unofficial write-in candidate, Diana Merenda. Neither named candidate secured more than 50% of the vote, which means the state now needs to conduct ranked-choice tabulations to determine a winner. 

The tabulation will be held at 1 p.m. on Tuesday at the Maine State Police headquarters building in Augusta. Both the ranked-choice tabulation and the recount Theriault requested are open to the public and will be streamed on the Maine Department of the Secretary of State’s YouTube page.

Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is among the outstanding races that could determine the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans already claimed victory in securing the U.S. Senate, and have flipped some Democratic districts red in the House. Complete control of Congress for Republicans would give president-elect Donald Trump a significant boost in enacting his sweeping agenda.

Even though the presidential, U.S. Senate and 1st Congressional District races in Maine also used ranked-choice voting, the 2nd District is the only one that will require ranked-choice tabulations, the Secretary of State’s office said Friday, based on initial election results.

RCV run-off is mathematically necessary 

Golden, who already gave a reelection victory speech, pushed back on the run-off, saying it isn’t necessary since he had more than 50% of the vote on election night when clerks reported returns. 

Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said the rule that allows election officials to forgo a ranked-choice run-off if a candidate has more than half of the vote only applies in situations where it is mathematically impossible for the leading candidate to lose if it went to a ranked-choice tabulation. 

However, Bellows said that isn’t the case in this race where the congressman leads by fewer than 2,200 votes. 

“Given that more than 12,000 voters made a first choice that was not either Congressman Golden or Representative Theriault, it is mathematically possible that the second choices of those voters could change the outcome,” Bellows wrote in a statement Friday. “For that reason, the law requires that we proceed with the ranked choice voting tabulation.”

Golden had 196,189 votes or 48.65% of the vote and Theriault had 194,030 votes or 48.11%, according to data the department said it received from municipalities. 

Merenda received 420 first-choice votes, which is one-tenth of a percentage point. Another 12,600 ballots left their first choice blank, the data show. 

RCV tabulations first, then a recount 

Theriault has also said on social media that his campaign is filing for a recount, given how close the outcome is. 

Maine law does not require recounts, but candidates can request one. In very close races — 1% or less of the apparent margin of victory — they can be requested without a candidate needing to pay a deposit. During that process, representatives for each candidate along with department staff will manually review each paper ballot. 

In another social media post Friday, Theriault’s campaign outlined what it described as areas of concern, which largely included voting numbers from towns where Theriault underperformed compared to other Republicans on the ballot. 

“We must ensure a full, accurate count, and that will likely take some time,” Theriault’s campaign manager Shawn Roderick wrote. “Unfortunately, that means that we’re looking at a lengthy process, and we’re looking at this taking weeks — not days — to ensure Mainers’ voices are heard. We have to follow the process and the law to ensure every vote is counted fairly and accurately.”

The Secretary of State’s office has said any recount will take place after the ranked-choice tabulations.