What if the Missouri GOP gubernatorial primary were a hand of Texas Hold ‘Em?

During the 2022 election cycle, I decided to combine two of my favorite hobbies – poker and politics. I wrote a series of columns depicting Missouri’s U.S. Senate race as a hand of Texas Hold ‘Em, with the final installment predicting an Eric Schmitt victory. 

Recently in the Capitol, I was collared by a gubernatorial candidate who exhorted me: “When are you going to write a column about the governor’s race as a poker hand?”

I thought he was joking, but a couple weeks later, he asked again.

You can’t outrun your fate. And so here we are.

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As veteran Hold ‘Em players know, two cards are dealt face down to each player, while five “community cards” are dealt face up in three rounds – first, a group of three cards (“the flop”), then a single card (“the turn”) and a final card (“the river”). 

Each player seeks the best five-card poker hand from any combination of the seven cards (their two hole cards plus five community cards). Players may bet before the flop is dealt and after each subsequent round. The best live hand wins the pot.

Since I’m jumping into the race a bit later than last time, I’ll use my first column to lay out each major GOP candidate’s starting hand and then the state of the race after the flop.

Jay Ashcroft starting hand: JJ (Jack of spades, Jack of clubs)

Pocket jacks is the 4th-best starting hand out of 169 possibilities

Jay Ashcroft’s father, John, was a popular two-term governor, U.S. Senator and United States Attorney General. Alongside Jack Danforth and Kit Bond, John Ashcroft was one of the godfathers of the modern Missouri Republican party, and alone among those three, was a strong conservative whose politics generally remain in step with today’s Republican Party.

Jay Ashcroft — who goes by John R. (Jay) Ashcroft on the ballot — led the Republican ticket in 2020 as the top statewide vote-getter (though that may have had as much to do with his opponent’s name, Yinka Faleti, as his own). He has near-universal name identification among primary voters, and even before spending a dime started out over 40% in nearly every poll, whereas his two primary opponents generally polled in single digits. 

He has a well-defined brand among one of Missouri’s largest voting blocs – Southwest Missouri evangelicals – and relatedly, the support of Missouri Right to Life.

Ashcroft has a sterling conservative pedigree, no voting record and a good platform as Secretary of State — the dynamics of the 2024 election cycle have afforded him numerous opportunities for the spotlight in ways that appeal to his party base. 

He has repeatedly thrown sand in the gears of the abortion-rights initiative petition using various procedural obstacles at his office’s disposal. Assuming the abortion-rights coalition submits a sufficient number of signatures (as I expect will happen), Ashcroft will have another chance to delight his party’s base by contesting the signatures (as I also expect).

Initiative petition reform has taken center stage during the legislative session, giving Ashcroft several occasions to weigh in and garner earned media. 

And congressional redistricting  is retroactively gaining prominence due to the vagaries of national politics, as a combination of recent resignations and special elections has eroded the Republican count in the U.S. House to 219, threatening Republican control of the chamber. 

Since Ashcroft was the party’s loudest voice imploring the legislature to draw a 7-1 Republican congressional map last cycle, he’s approaching “I-told-you-so” territory.

Mike Kehoe’s starting hand: AQ (Ace of spades, Queen of hearts)

AQ is the 13th-best starting hand out of 169 possibilities

Whereas Ashcroft holds significant advantages on name identification and conservative branding, Kehoe also brings real advantages to the race.

Kehoe’s biggest advantage is money. As of the start of the year, Kehoe had roughly $6 million dollars on hand, between his campaign and the main PAC supporting him. This is nearly three times the amount Ashcroft had on hand. 

Kehoe is the state’s smoothest retail politician. You can take him to a meeting of Kansas City business leaders or to a farm in the Bootheel or to a North St. Louis low-income housing development and he effortlessly connects with people. His near-daily appearances the Missouri Ethics Commission’s “$5,000+ Contribution” section are a testament to his decades of relationship-building across the state as a businessman, philanthropist, and politician.    

Of course that doesn’t mean that those people will necessarily remember to vote for him. But that’s why his financial advantage is so important: to remind the tens of thousands of people he has met over the years of the guy they liked.

In most polling I’ve seen, Kehoe’s name ID among primary voters hovers around 50%. This suggests significant upside potential relative to Ashcroft, whose name is universally recognized by primary voters.

This is the crux of Kehoe’s opportunity: generalizing from a variety of polls, roughly half of Republican primary voters have heard of Ashcroft but are not currently supporting him.

It’s possible that means that these voters are still open to supporting Ashcroft once they learn more about their policy proximity. The more ominous possibility for Ashcroft is that most of that bloc have already ruled him out.

Kehoe’s starting hand is AQ off suit. It’s a strong hand with lots of outs — any Ace or Queen that falls puts him ahead, and a 10-J-Q-K-A straight is also possible.

But starting out, he’s behind Ashcroft’s pocket Jacks. In other words, if the election took place when the race began, Ashcroft would’ve won easily.

Bill Eigel’s starting hand: 35 suited (3 of diamonds, 5 of diamonds)

35 suited is the 77th-best starting hand out of 169 possibilities

State Sen. Bill Eigel walked into the casino and probably would have dominated the $1,000 buy-in game with $2-$5 blinds (the Lieutenant Governor’s race). 

Instead, he barged into the $10,000 buy-in game with $25-$50 blinds where the guys with huge stacks sense he can’t call massive bluffs because he doesn’t have the bankroll. 

Eigel is the Senate’s most skilled and adroit orator. His particular gift is to frame, or reframe, almost any policy stance as a conservative populist one. 

A common joke among defense lawyers goes something like this: “If you’ve got the facts on your side, argue the facts. If you’ve got the law on your side, argue the law. If you have neither, pound the table.”

Eigel doesn’t have the brand name that Ashcroft has. He doesn’t have Kehoe’s money. And so he is spending this session pounding the proverbial table — that is, the Senate floor. 

It was fairly evident before the legislative session that he would utilize this strategy, as I noted in my Christmas column. And he has gotten some press. But not all the attention has been positive. He took a hit earlier this year when former President Trump’s campaign rebuked him for fundraising tactics that caused donors to believe they were donating to Trump himself. 

With 3-5 suited, Eigel has the third-best starting hand in the race —  a fairly distant third. 

The Flop: K-10-6 rainbow (King of clubs, 10 of diamonds, 6 of hearts)

K-10-6 doesn’t help Ashcroft, though he remains firmly in the lead.

Ashcroft’s challenge – as represented by the unhelpful flop – is that there has not been a week so far this cycle when he has been in a stronger position than he was the week before.

From the forum where he opposed special tax benefits for veterans (which quickly became grist for a negative ad), to the time he got testy with a CNN anchor during a discussion of legal issues surrounding the presidential race, to the tough audit his office received from fellow Republican Scott Fitzpatrick, his challenges and difficulty converting his policy congruence with the base into durable triumphs have prevented him from winning any weeks.

That said, Ashcroft doesn’t need to actually win any weeks. Even after some slippage, he’s ahead by double digits, so if he can break even most weeks for the next few months, he’ll likely win. This is signified by the fact that no card in the deck that can help him much – even a third Jack hurts by giving Kehoe the straight and requiring a river card that would “pair the board” (either a K, 10, 6, or J) to give Ashcroft a full house or quad jacks, the only ways he could beat a straight. 

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K-10-6 is a pretty good flop for Kehoe. While he didn’t catch an Ace or Queen, the flop improves his hand by giving him a straight possibility, if a Jack falls on the turn or river which would give him an 10-J-Q-K-A straight. So he now has 10 outs — any Ace, any Queen, or either remaining Jack.

Kehoe’s fundraising advantage has only grown since the race began, and he’s piling up endorsements from influential Republican groups. From the Farm Bureau to the Fraternal Order of Police, the Cattlemen to the Chamber of Commerce, most organized groups that have influence in Republican primaries support Kehoe (with the notable exception of Missouri Right to Life, which backed Ashcroft, and the NRA, which remains neutral so far).

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Eigel has raised his name ID a bit since session started, and helped raise the profile of a couple issues, most notably initiative petition reform, among grassroots conservatives. But despite Herculean efforts, he hasn’t had a game-changer. That’s represented in the flop, which helped Eigel a bit giving him (highly unlikely) back-door flush and straight draws, but still leaves him well behind. He would make his flush if the turn and river were both diamonds, and would make his straight if the turn and river came 2-4 or 4-7. 

So the best possible turn card for Eigel would be a 4 of diamonds. But he needs to hit both the turn and the river for a come-from-behind win, whereas Kehoe only needs to hit one of two remaining cards. That leaves Eigel’s probability of victory in the single-digits. 

If the grassroots thrills to his candidacy over the summer, then he has a shot. But he needs lightning to strike, and that hasn’t happened yet. The final eight weeks of the legislative session will provide him additional opportunities to stand out as a conservative firebrand, and he will surely seize them.