Voter turnout for primary predicted at 35% of registered voters in Nebraska

LINCOLN — Voter turnout for Tuesday’s primary election is predicted at 35% statewide as well as in Douglas County, with slightly higher turnout predicted in Lancaster County.

Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen, in a press release Friday, said he based his prediction on the return of early ballots.

There have been 227,679 early ballot so far, Evnen said, including ballots sent to all-mail precincts and counties. To date, 122,679 ballots have been returned, he said.

Douglas County Election Commissioner Brian Kruse predicted Friday that voter turnout in the state’s most populous county would be 35%, which would be higher than in any gubernatorial primary in the last 16 years.

“This election cycle has piqued the interest of voters in Douglas County,” Kruse said. “We may very well have a record turnout for a gubernatorial primary election.”

Lancaster County Election Commissioner Dave Shively said Friday that turnout in gubernatorial primaries in 2020 (42%) and 2010 (40%) were higher than his 37% prediction for Tuesday. He noted that 2010 was the year Capitol City voters had to decide whether to approve a financing plan for Lincoln’s Pinnacle Bank Arena.

The 2022 primary election features a hotly contested race for the Republican nomination for governor, and have prompted a shift of more than 8,000 voters to the GOP.

University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen of Columbus, Falls City businessman Charles Herbster and State Sen. Brett Lindstrom of Omaha have led the GOP pack and have filled the airways with advertisements.

In Douglas County, Kruse said he has received 84,948 requests for early voting ballots, a record number.

His prediction of 35% turnout in the county compares with turnouts in past gubernatorial primaries of 27.6% in 2006, 12.0% in 2010, 20.6% in 2014, and 20.9% in 2018.

In 2006, former Nebraska football coach and U.S. Rep. Tom Osborne challenged Gov. Dave Heineman in the GOP governor’s primary, with Heineman pulling out the victory.

A turnout of 35% of voters in Douglas County would result in 125,218 votes cast. A turnout of 37% in Lancaster County would represent about 74,000 votes.

In Douglas County, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 135,319 to 127,102, as of May 2. The county has 5,857 Libertarians, 803 Legal Marijuana NOW party members and 88,684 nonpartisans, Kruse said.

He discouraged voters at this time from returning early ballots via the U.S. Postal Service because of extended processing times.

All early voting ballots must be received by the Douglas County Election Commission, either at its office or at one of its drop box locations, by 8 p.m. Tuesday, which is Election Day.