Trump’s lead grows in new Iowa Poll as Haley catches up to DeSantis

Former President Donald Trump’s lead over his rivals for the 2024 Iowa caucuses grew in the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll published Monday, while former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley rose to tie with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place.

The poll found 43% of likely Republican caucusgoers plan to choose Trump as their first choice in the caucuses, up from 42% in the August Iowa Poll. Trump’s share of supporters did not grow significantly between the two polls, he gained a higher lead over his GOP competitors — rising from 23 to 27 percentage points ahead of DeSantis.

While DeSantis kept hold of his second place spot, his position as the leading alternative to the former president flagged between the two polls. From August to October, DeSantis fell from 19% to 16% of respondents who picked him as their first choice. In the same period, Haley made a 10-percentage-point leap in the same category, matching DeSantis at 16% in the latest poll.

Trump has highlighted his success in Iowa and national polls on the campaign trail. In Sioux City Sunday, the former president told the crowd he has been repeatedly warned to not take Iowans’ support for granted, but that “there’s no way Iowa is going to be against Trump.”

Though he emphasized his confidence in the support of Midwestern states in presidential nominating contests and a general election rematch against President Joe Biden, Trump spent time criticizing DeSantis and Haley at the Iowa event.

No other GOP presidential candidates reached double-digit support in the October poll: U.S. Sen. Tim Scott has support of 7% of likely Republican caucusgoers, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy came in at 4%, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum at 3% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at 1%. Texas pastor and businessman Ryan Binkley polled at 0%, in addition to 2% of respondents answering that “none of these” candidates were their first choice and 3% were not sure on who they want to become the Republican presidential nominee.

The latest poll follows a flurry of candidates dropping out of the race in the past month. Former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign Saturday, telling the crowd at the Republican Jewish Coalition Conference that “it’s become clear to me, this is not my time.”

Pence did not make an endorsement while exiting the race. But other Republicans presidential hopefuls who dropped their bids in recent weeks have — conservative talk show host Larry Elder and Michigan businessman Perry Johnson both endorsed Trump when they announced leaving the field in October. Former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd endorsed Haley as he ended his campaign while calling for Republicans “to unite around an alternative candidate to Trump.”

Haley and DeSantis traded attacks in campaign ads in October as the former U.N. ambassador gained more attention on the national stage — and in Iowa — following a heightened focus on international affairs following the Hamas attack on Israel Oct. 7.

Never Back Down, the PAC backing DeSantis, released ads criticizing Haley for offering incentives to a Chinese fiberglass manufacturing company that established a product line in South Carolina while she was governor, as well as claiming she supported allowing Palestinian refugees from Gaza into America.

The super PAC supporting Haley released an ad saying the claim about accepting Palestinian refugees was false, saying he “is losing, he’s lying, so now he’s throwing mud at Nikki Haley.”

As some Republicans like Hurd are calling for the party to rally behind a single candidate who can put up a significant challenge to the former president, there are still eight candidates competing for the GOP ticket in 2024.

Candidates are hoping to raise their national profile in debates, with the third Republican presidential debate scheduled for Nov. 8 in Miami, Florida. At least six candidates plan to participate, but not everyone still in the race will participate. Burgum has not met the polling threshold set by the RNC to make it on the stage, and Hutchinson has met neither the polling and donor thresholds.

Trump has not participated in any of the Republican debates ahead of 2024. The former president  told Iowans earlier in October that the debates are pointless because he holds such a large lead.

“They’re going to cancel all the debates after Miami, that’s what I hear,” he said.

Though Trump is the leading candidate, his campaign is also taking on a challenge no other candidates face – a multitude of criminal charges. Trump is currently involved in cases alleging interference in the 2020 election and illegal possession of classified documents, as well as felony counts related to allegedly falsifying business records in a payment to Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election.

The poll also found that nearly two-thirds, 65%, of likely Republican caucusgoers did not believe that Trump’s legal battles would negatively impact his ability to win against Biden in a general election. The majority of respondents said the former president “can win an election against Joe Biden, regardless of his legal challenges,” while 32% said Trump’s court cases “will make it nearly impossible for him to win an election against Joe Biden.”

A plurality of likely GOP caucusgoers also said Trump should continue to lead the party; 39% responded that the Republican Party “should continue to be led by Donald Trump,” 28% said Trump was “a good president, but it is time to consider other leaders,” while 32% called for a new party leader “with better personal behavior and a different approach.”

Though DeSantis’ support fell among likely Republican caucusgoers as a first choice, Trump and DeSantis have the same share of poll respondents weighing them as an option. Both have 67% of likely Republican caucusgoers who rank them as their first or second choice, or said they are “actively considering” the candidates. Haley has a smaller footprint with 54% of likely GOP caucusgoers considering her for the 2024 presidential nomination, followed by Scott at 49% and Vivek Ramaswamy at 32%.

The poll was conducted Oct. 22-26 by Selzer & Co., surveying 404 likely Republican caucusgoers, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.