Top Democratic US Senate PAC commits to 9 states, eyes more Republican targets

A leading Democratic campaign committee is projecting confidence in U.S. Senate toss-up races four weeks before Election Day, though it has yet to commit resources to the reddest states that have recently entered the Senate map.

Senate Majority PAC, which is run by allies of Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York, has bought ad time, or has commitments to do so, in nine states, Lauren French, the group’s chief spokesperson told reporters Tuesday. 

Those states — Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — show Democrats are competing this cycle in typically Republican places. Elections analysts generally say those states are toss-ups or lean Democratic.

The Democratic super PAC’s slate, though, is not as expansive as some of the latest public polls and forecaster ratings show could be in play.

The group is “watching really closely” the races in GOP strongholds of Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi and Kansas, French said. 

At least one of those states, Kansas, could be in play for the first time in decades, according to elections forecaster The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, which moved it into the toss-up category Tuesday.

“Broadly, we are very pleased with the state of the race right now,” French said. “We are invested in nine battleground states and are looking very closely at some of the expansion states that are coming (into) play as we get four weeks from the election and the environment continues to be increasingly rough for Republicans.”

An expanded Senate map is available to Democrats because of President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, especially tied to the Iran war and related high gas prices, French said. Trump’s approval rating is lower than his disapproval rating “in every battleground state,” she added.

North Carolina moves

Opportunities for Republicans appear to be shrinking, with North Carolina moving further toward Democrats. 

Cook shifted the race from lean Democrat to likely Democrat on Tuesday, after the Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC, said last week it was freezing future spending in the state.

French said the Senate Majority PAC also canceled its television and digital spending this week in the race for the seat left open by retiring Republican Thom Tillis. The group has not made decisions on spending in the Tar Heel State beyond this week, she said.

Republicans hold cash edge

While the national political environment favors Democrats, the GOP and its fellow campaign groups maintain a massive cash advantage against Democrats.

Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., held more than $400 million at the end of August, according to records filed with the Federal Election Commission. Senate Majority PAC showed around $57 million on hand in the same report.

Fundraising numbers for official party committees also significantly favor Republicans. 

The Republican National Committee and the party’s campaign groups supporting House and Senate candidates outraised their Democratic counterparts by about $100 million through Aug. 31, according to an analysis by nonpartisan elections analyst Ballopedia. 

Republicans have largely aimed to portray Democrats as too far to the left to capably manage Congress.

“Voters have a clear choice this November between Republicans who will fight for them and radical, socialist Democrats who would serve as rubber stamps for Chuck Schumer’s Washington machine,” Bernadette Breslin, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement.

Rare pickup opportunities

Still, the Senate Majority PAC’s bullish sentiment broadly matches expert opinion, as forecasters continue to see a strong case for Democrats to pick up Senate seats. Republicans now control the Senate with 53 seats.

The elections handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved two Senate races in Democrats’ direction Tuesday. 

The group labeled Alaska as leaning toward Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola in her challenge to incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, and shifted U.S. Sen. Darline Graham’s reelection race in South Carolina from safe Republican to likely Republican.

Overall, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which operates at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, rates 49 seats, including those of incumbents not on the ballot this year, as at least leaning toward the Democrat, with four seen as toss-ups. 

Democrats, who now hold 47 seats, would need to net 51 seats to win a majority because Vice President JD Vance casts tie-breaking votes.

A flip in control of the chamber would significantly slow Trump’s nominees to the federal bench and executive branch posts.