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Shock poll? New Fox News survey has Trump over Biden by just 4 points in Florida

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Shock poll? New Fox News survey has Trump over Biden by just 4 points in Florida

Jun 07, 2024 | 9:41 am ET
By Mitch Perry
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Shock poll? New Fox News survey has trump over Biden by just 4 points in Florida
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President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and former President Donald Trump, a Republican, are headed for a rematch in the 2024 presidential election. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Despite a claim by the Joe Biden campaign earlier this year that “Florida is in play,” there’s been little indication so far in 2024 that the Sunshine State won’t go for Donald Trump for a third presidential election.

But Florida Democrats are touting a new public opinion survey released Thursday night by Fox News of 1,075 registered voters that shows Trump up over Biden by only 4 points, 50%-46%.

 “Donald Trump is in trouble in Florida,” the Florida Democratic Party announced in a written statement. Later, the party made a fundraising pitch on X referring to the poll, saying that “This confirms that Florida is back as a battleground state.”

Is it really?

The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump up over Biden by 8 percentage points. The only other poll in Florida that showed Biden as close was a St. Pete Polls survey conducted with WMNF Radio in Tampa in March that showed Trump up by 6 points, 48%-42%.

The Fox News poll was conducted of registered voters, and not “likely” voters. Pollsters with Gallup wrote years ago that not all registered voters will actually vote, which is why they created systems in 1950 to isolate likely voters, “that group of individuals who the company can estimate are most likely to actually vote.”

The survey was conducted June 1-4, after Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records in New York.

The Fox News poll shows that Trump’s lead over Biden expands to 7 points when third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein are included. Trump leads with 47%, with Biden at 40%, Kennedy at 7%, West at 2%, and Stein at 1%. Stein is running for the Green Party nomination. If nominated this summer, she is guaranteed to be on the ballot, as the Greens already are qualified in Florida.

Kennedy Jr. intends to be placed on the Florida ballot as the Reform Party candidate, but that hasn’t officially happened yet. And West’s political party has yet to hold a nominating convention that would get him placed on the Florida ballot.

The Fox News survey has good news for those supporting the two big measures on the November ballot: recreational cannabis for adults over 21 and abortion rights.

“This is an outlier poll and more left leaning than turnout will be,” Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power told the Phoenix.

The cannabis measure, Amendment 3, gets 66% support, with 32% opposing it. Amendment 4, which would establish the right of abortion until viability, gets 69% support, with 27% opposing. Those are the highest poll numbers for both measures since the Florida Supreme Court voted to place both on the ballot on April 1.