Research says anti-trans campaign ads are ineffective, but hold back trans acceptance
While anti-transgender campaign ads have essentially been ineffective as advancing candidates to victory, they have been successful in demonizing an already marginalized group and further endangering their overall safety.
That’s according to new research into the anti-trans ads on TV and online in races up and down the ballot, starting with the approximately $95 million the campaign of former President Donald Trump and groups allied to him are reported to have spent from Oct. 7 to Oct. 20 on ads attacking Vice President Kamala Harris for statements she made in 2019 during her Democratic presidential primary run supporting gender-affirming care access, including for federal detainees.
That represents almost half of the estimated $200 million and more spent by GOP candidates this election cycle, mainly attempting to influence Black and Latino men and suburban women that trans individuals, who make up just 1% of the population, represent a threat to their way of life.
However, a recent survey from Data for Progress found that 80% of voters agree that “both Democrats and Republicans should spend less time talking about transgender issues and more time talking about voters’ priority issues like the economy and inflation.”
That tracks with consistent findings throughout 2024 that the economy, jobs, and inflation are the top issues for voters, while LGBTQ+ issues rank dead last among the top two issues motivating their vote.
And while the blitz of anti-trans advertisements likely don’t have much of an effect on election results, they do make the lives of trans individuals harder, by delaying public acceptance and increasing intolerance, experts said.
A study by Ground Media compared responses of those who saw the Trump anti-trans ad to those who saw an unrelated ad, showing no appreciable shift in voter choice, while significantly reducing public acceptance of trans people regardless of demographics.
Those who viewed the anti-trans ad were 3.7% less likely to support policies ensuring trans access to health care and 3.1% less comfortable with accepting a trans friend or family member, even among those who say they currently know someone who is trans.
“What this demonstrates is that attacking the trans community isn’t just a weak and feckless political strategy — it’s a deeply cynical one,” said David Rochkind, CEO of Ground Media. “These ads weaponize trans-identity to sow fear and division, making our country less safe for everyone.”
That fear and division take an outsize toll on trans youth according to Roz Keith, founder and executive director of Stand with Trans, who notes 39% of transgender youth in the United States live in states that have banned gender-affirming care.
“While the anti-trans rhetoric and bills are not moving the political needle, they are incredibly harmful,” said Keith. “Reportedly, 90% of trans folks are affected and that includes discrimination, harassment, and/or have experienced barriers to gender affirming care which often results in harmful behaviors, including suicidality.”
The anti-trans ad campaign does not just have a national focus, but is also featured in a variety of other races, including those for U.S. Senate.
In Michigan, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-White Lake) has made an assault on trans athletes a feature of his campaign against U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly). In his campaign ad, Rogers claims, “Congresswoman Slotkin is focused on letting men into girls’ sports. I’m focused on teaching kids how to read.”
Congresswoman Slotkin is focused on a woke agenda that puts biological males in our daughters’ locker rooms.
I’m focused on real issues, like improving the literacy rates in our state so that we can better set our children up for success.
I’m a dad, and in the Senate I’ll… pic.twitter.com/IDHsF8QGpc
— Mike Rogers (@MikeRogersForMI) November 3, 2024
While Neil Rubin of the Detroit Free Press reported there were just two high school trans female athletes in all of Michigan, AdHawk reported that in the last month, they have tracked $3.5 million in anti-trans ads in the Michigan Senate race.
Some candidates on the receiving end of these anti-trans attacks have opted to directly address their motivation, as exemplified by Christina Bohanan, a Democrat running for Iowa’s 1st Congressional District against incumbent Republican, U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks.
Like Rogers, Miller-Meeks has attacked her Democratic opponent on issues surrounding trans athletes in high school sports, to which Bohanan responded with an ad of her own, noting that she was “proud to run track in high school,” but called it “pathetic” that Miller-Meeks was “trying to panic you about girls sports instead of tackling our toughest problems,” including “cutting middle class taxes, protecting social security and Medicare and fighting for our reproductive rights.”
Recent polling in that race indicates Miller-Meeks’ anti-trans attacks have not only been ineffective, but potentially costly, with district voters preferring a Democratic candidate by a 16-point margin.