Republicans make more gains in AZ House as they overtake Dem incumbents

Arizona Republicans are in line to pick up a third new seat in the state House of Representatives — and are on the verge of adding a fourth to that haul, an unexpected outcome in a year when Democrats pulled out all the stops in a bid to end 60 years of GOP control of the chamber.

After Maricopa County tallied 123,000 ballots on Friday, Democratic state Rep. Seth Blattman saw his razor-thin lead over Republican Kylie Barber in west Mesa’s Legislative District 9 evaporate. When the day’s counting ended, Blattman went from sitting in second place in the four-person race with a less-than-100-vote lead to sitting in fourth place, trailing both Barber and Republican Mary Ann Mendoza.

Barber is now positioned to take the second seat, though Mendoza is nipping at her heels and is just 150 votes behind Barber. Blattman trails Barber by about 280 votes.

A GOP victory in the district would add to what is already an unexpectedly terrible outcome for Democrats, who marshaled record resources to flip the legislature, including more than $10 million from outside groups for an onslaught of mailers, ads and paid canvassers who spent months knocking on doors and speaking to voters.

Before Friday’s counting, Republicans were already expected to nab two seats held by Democrats. Defeating Blattman would add a third, increasing their majority in the 60-member chamber to 34 seats.

And they may not be done. In Legislative District 2 in north Phoenix, Democrat Stephanie Simacek’s lead has crumbled, with Friday’s count taking her from leading the three-way field to barely clinging to the second seat. After Thursday’s ballots were tallied, Simacek led GOP Rep. Justin Wilmeth by 400 votes and Republican Ari Daniel Bradshaw by about 700 votes.

But now Wilmeth is sitting at the top of the contest. Simacek is 160 votes behind him, and just 34 votes ahead of Bradshaw. 

Simacek had hoped to maintain Democratic control of a seat currently held by Judy Schwiebert, who mounted a challenge for the state Senate but appears certain to fall short of victory.

There were no lead changes in Senate contests, but Republicans have inched closer to capturing two seats held by Democrats, and to retaining control of another seat.

In the District 9 Senate race, Sen. Eva Burch saw her lead over GOP challenger Robert Scantlebury shrink from 1,300 votes to a bit more than 1,000. And Sen. Brian Fernandez is nursing a 1,300-vote lead over GOP newcomer Michelle Altherr in Legislative District 23, a heavily Democratic district that stretches from the southwest Valley to Yuma. 

And in Tucson’s Legislative District 17, Republican Vince Leach, a former state legislator, clawed back 1,000 votes against Democrat John McLean, trimming his lead from more than 1,300 votes to 355.