Republicans face tall task in effort to erode Democratic state Senate majority

Despite an election year forecast that’s less than encouraging for Republicans in states across the country, Nevada Republicans hope to flip control of the state Senate by ousting three Democratic incumbents, all in Southern Nevada.

It’s a tall order.

All the Democratic candidates have significantly out-raised their Republican challengers according to the most recent state campaign finance reports through July.

Democrats currently hold 13 of the 21 seats in the Senate, and have held both legislative chambers since 2016. If Republicans can beat three Democrats, and don’t lose any seats, Republicans would have 11 senators to the Democrats’ ten.

Conversely, if Democrats were to not only hold their own but pick up an additional seat currently held by a Republican, they would have a veto-proof majority in the state Senate.

A Democratic supermajority however seems unlikely. Incumbent Republican state Sen. Danielle Gallant, who represents Senate District 20, is seeking reelection, but in a heavily red district with 52,612 registered Republican voters compared to 30,077 Democratic voters. There are 50,489 nonpartisan registered voters in the district. 

Democratic candidate Calvin Sandoval, a union pipefitter endorsed by AFL-CIO and the Culinary Union, is challenging Gallant. 

He has not been endorsed by the NV Senate Democratic Caucus. Sandoval has raised $5,577 through the July 15 cycle compared to Gallant’s $73,942.

Supermajority scare takes a back seat this year

During the 2024 campaign cycle, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo was not on the ballot. But in conjunction with the Lombardo-aligned Better Nevada PAC, the governor made blocking Democratic supermajorities in the Legislature a campaign priority, so as to assure Democrats could not override his vetoes. A veto override requires a two-thirds vote from both houses.

The year before, in 2023, Lombardo had set the state’s record for the most vetoes by a governor in a single legislative session, with 75. 

Democrats did not win legislative supermajorities in either chamber in the 2024 election. In the ensuing 2025 legislative session, Lombardo smashed his previous veto record, rejecting 87 bills.

Focusing instead on Lombardo’s reelection, neither Lombardo nor the Better Nevada PAC have mounted a high-profile effort warning against legislative supermajorities this year. 

Meanwhile, state Senate Democrats, hoping Attorney General Aaron Ford ousts Lombardo from the governor’s mansion, are focusing on tying Lombardo and Republican Senate candidates to the Trump administration.

“Republicans nominated a slate of candidates who will double down on failed policies that are raising costs for Nevadans,” Brandon Errer, a spokesperson for the NV Senate Democrats. “Their candidates support Trump’s tariffs and oppose going after out-of-state corporations that are buying up housing and driving up the cost of health care and groceries.” 

The Senate Republican Caucus didn’t respond to requests for comment. 

Potential Democratic leadership shake-up

Assuming Democrats stave off the Republican challenge and maintain the Senate majority, they could also be seeing a new era of leadership. 

Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro, who has led since 2019, is running for Nevada Attorney General. If she wins the statewide election it will lead to an opening in Senate Democratic leadership with no clear successor. 

Senate District 12, located in the southeast part of the Las Vegas Valley, is currently held by Democratic incumbent. Julie Pazina. She is being challenged by Republican Rafael Arroyo-Montalvo, a small business owner.

Pazina raised roughly $125,000 in the second quarter of the year and has raised a total of $419,000 as of July 15. Arroyo-Montalvo raised $59,000 in the second quarter with a total of $99,000.

Pazina was first elected in 2022, which flipped the district to Democratic control after several years being held by Republicans. 

Former Republican state Sen. Joe Hardy was first elected to the seat in 2010 and held it for 12 years. Prior to winning a state Senate seat in 2012, Ford unsuccessfully tried to flip SD 12 in 2010. 

As of August there were 34,328 registered Democratic voters in the district, compared to 30,168 registered Republicans, according to the Secretary of State’s office. As they do statewide, nonpartisans account for the largest share of the district’s electorate, with 51,835 registered voters.

Arroyo-Montalvo ran in Assembly District 41 in 2024 but narrowly lost against Assemblymember Sandra Jauregui. 

SD 8, which is located in the Summerlin area, has also bounced back and forth between the parties. 

Democratic state Sen. Marilyn Dondero Loop, who is seeking re-election for her third and final term representing the district, will face Republican George Harris, an Army veteran and entrepreneur. 

Dondero Loop raised $132,000 in the second quarter and has raised a total of $506,000. Harris raised roughly $77,0000 during the same period and raised nearly $92,000 total.

Democrats have an edge in the district with 32,734 registered voters compared to 30,972 Republicans. Nonpartisans make up the biggest portion with 47,511 active voters.

Dondero Loop was first elected in the blue wave election year of 2018, when Democrats in Nevada won a trifecta — both houses of the Legislature and the governor’s office.

Two-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Melanie Scheible will face Republican Maria Thompson, a former broadcast journalist, in SD 9 in the southwest part of the valley. 

Like the two other districts, Democratic voters outnumber Republicans, with 33,456 registered Democrats compared to 25,934 registered Republicans. There are 51,485 registered nonpartisan voters.

Scheible was first elected to the seat in 2018 during the blue wave, flipping the district from Republican control.

Republicans were able to claim the district during the 2014 Republican wave, which ousted then Democratic state Sen. Justin Jones. 

Scheible raised $119,000 in the second quarter of the year while Thompson raised $91,000. Scheible has raised $340,000 in total campaign contributions while Thompson has nearly $173,000.