‘Red state’ Ohio may have lost some of its rouge after midterms

Victories in Ohio for President Donald Trump since 2016 have led many analysts to declare Ohio a red state. Victories for Republicans at all levels have made experts question why Ohio is no longer a battleground state.

After a decade of declarations that Ohio is now a red state, this midterm cycle has made some realize that Ohio may not be so reliably red.

This year Time Magazine published an article stating, “When no one was looking, Ohio became a swing state again,” but we can assure you, we were looking. We have published work showing that Ohio voters are really not that different from Michigan voters and that the outcomes in the states can be explained by factors like redistricting and voter registration laws. We encouraged people to not write off Ohio.

The results of the election on Nov. 3 showed how Ohio should regain its swing state status. Democrats swept every statewide election except for one, winning the U.S. Senate seat as well as the governor, secretary of state, attorney general, and treasurer races.

Democrats appear to have won eight of the state’s 15 U.S. House seats, which it should be pointed out were gerrymandered to garner 12 Republican seats and three Democratic. Democrats also broke the Republican supermajority in the Ohio House of Representatives, and won both Ohio Supreme Court races.  

The conditions were right for Ohio to elect their first Democratic governor in 20 years, and to send Sherrod Brown back to the U.S. Senate. This election cycle in Ohio felt a lot like 2006, when voters elected Democrat Ted Strickland governor and Brown to his first term as a senator.

Leading up to the 2006 midterms, there was an unpopular Republican president in his second term, falling consumer sentiment, concern over gas prices, and an unpopular war in the Middle East. All of those things should sound familiar because we are living them now.

Momentum remained with Democrats in the state through 2008, when Barack Obama won by four points. Although Obama also won the state in 2012, by 2010, state-level offices had swung back to Republicans, with John Kasich defeating Ted Strickland for governor.

In fact, if there ever has been a “reliably red” Ohio, it has been at the state-level where Republicans have controlled the state legislature and governor’s office for most of the last 30 years.

The results from Nov. 3 certainly do not mean that Ohio is now a blue state, but they do indicate that the Democratic Party can compete in the state if they choose to make it competitive. There will not be an incumbent running for president in 2028, and newly elected Sherrod Brown will have to defend his seat after finishing out what was (now-Vice President) J.D. Vance’s term.

The Democratic Party has a strong reason to believe Ohio is in play in 2028 and is important for keeping the Senate majority.  The days of massive ground games and high-profile campaign stops could return to Ohio. The state could be the center of politics once again.  

Nonetheless, there are some things that work against Ohio becoming the high-profile battleground state it was not that long ago. Thirty years ago, winning Ohio meant winning 21 electoral votes in the Electoral College, but now the state is worth just 17.

While Ohio has lost electoral votes, states like Georgia have gained. The population in Ohio is dispersed across multiple major cities, while in Georgia roughly half of the state population lives in the Atlanta metropolitan area. This makes competing in Ohio more costly for parties than competing in Georgia, a state with only one fewer electoral vote.

Also, now that massive Texas appears to be competitive, the parties may divert significant resources there and away from other potential swing states.    

The Democratic Party has an opportunity to take advantage of the momentum from the most recent general election. They can invest in races in the state and keep it competitive. They can potentially win elections down the ballot and grow their bench of candidates at the state and local levels. Their wins this year statewide produce a bench for other more high-profile statewide offices.

A lot of work will need to be done to compete consistently against a strong Ohio Republican Party with no shortage of qualified candidates. The question will be if the party believes Ohio is worth the investment, and if they spend the resources to organize lower-propensity voters between elections. It also wouldn’t hurt if they are able to deliver on some of their promises concerning the cost of living, regulating data centers, and making it easier to vote.