Preliminary FBI data shows a sharp drop in violent crime

U.S. violent crime fell sharply in 2025, according to preliminary federal data, with murders dropping an estimated 18.1% — a decline that could push the national homicide rate to its lowest level on record if the figures hold.

The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program reported that overall violent crime fell an estimated 9.3% compared with 2024, alongside broad decreases across major categories. Robbery dropped 18.5%, aggravated assault fell 7.2% and reported rapes declined 7.6%. Property crime was down an estimated 12.4%.

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The FBI said the estimates, released last week, are based on data submitted by more than 17,000 law enforcement agencies covering about 96% of the U.S. population. 

Participation in the FBI’s crime data collection is voluntary for law enforcement agencies. The crime data itself only reflects crimes reported to police.

More than 15,000 agencies reported through the National Incident-Based Reporting System, which now covers nearly 90% of the population, according to the FBI. NIBRS, as the system is known, is the agency’s new, more detailed crime reporting system. It became the national standard in 2021.

The FBI’s early data aligns with projections from the nonpartisan think tank Council on Criminal Justice, which in January forecasted that 2025 may have had the lowest homicide rate in more than a century.

Both violent and non-violent crime levels in most of the cities studied in the council’s analysis also were at or below pre-pandemic levels.

Stateline reporter Amanda Watford can be reached at [email protected].