Perriello seeks another 5th District upset as McGuire leans on Trump

Democrats are looking to an old winner for a new opening in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, where former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello is trying to repeat the upset that briefly put the Republican-leaning seat in his party’s hands 18 years ago.

Perriello, who defeated longtime Republican incumbent Virgil Goode in 2008, faces first-term U.S. Rep. John McGuire, R-Goochland, in the Nov. 3 election. Independent Cooke Costa Harvey is also on the ballot. 

Perriello served one term before losing to Republican Robert Hurt in 2010. Republicans have held the seat ever since, although the district’s boundaries have changed considerably since Perriello last represented it. 

Today, the 5th District stretches from Charlottesville and Albemarle County through Lynchburg and Danville to the North Carolina border, while reaching east toward the Richmond suburbs. It takes in university-centered communities, parts of rural Southside and heavily Republican suburbs and exurbs. 

Recent elections show the challenge Perriello faces in his contest to oust McGuire. 

President Donald Trump carried the district by about 12% in 2024. That year, McGuire defeated Democrat Gloria Witt 57.3% to 42.3%. Even during Democrats’ strong statewide showing last year, Gov. Abigail Spanberger received 46.3% of the vote in the district, according to election data by the Virginia Public Access Project. 

A new Washington Post-Schar School poll suggests a closer contest this fall. Conducted Sept. 23-28, the survey found McGuire leading Perriello 51% to 45% among likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters in the district was 4.6%. 

David Richards, a professor and chair of the political science department at the University of Lynchburg, said the district’s Republican lean still gives McGuire an advantage, but turnout could matter more than large numbers of voters changing sides. 

“The numbers are still on McGuire’s side, and Perriello has a huge climb still, but the final vote may be uncomfortably close,” Richards said. 

For McGuire, Richards added, the danger would be Republican voters staying home. Perriello needs strong Democratic participation while also reaching voters in the middle. 

McGuire ties his record to Trump

McGuire, a former U.S. Navy SEAL, came to Congress after several years in Virginia politics.  

In a 2024 interview, McGuire described a childhood spent partly in foster care around Central Virginia before his grandparents took him and his sister in. After leaving the Navy, McGuire returned to Virginia in 1998 and founded SEAL Team PT, a fitness business. He and his wife, Tracy, live in Goochland County.

He later served in the House of Delegates and briefly in the state Senate, before challenging then-U.S. Rep. Bob Good in the 2024 Republican primary.

That contest became a fight over loyalty to Trump after Good had endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for president. Trump backed McGuire, who ultimately defeated Good by 370 votes after a recount. 

McGuire’s campaign did not respond to a request for an interview for this story. 

During a September telephone rally with Trump, McGuire drew on his military background while making the case for his first term in Congress. 

“As a Navy SEAL veteran, there are many ways to serve. We work as a team to get things done, and we do that in the General Assembly and now in Congress,” he said. 

McGuire credited his team and the Trump administration with helping negotiate roughly $20 billion in investment in the district and about 7,000 new jobs. He also said his office had returned more than $10 million owed to constituents by the federal government. 

He has defended Republicans’ 2025 tax-and-spending law, pointing to deductions for tips, overtime and seniors as well as a $50 billion rural health program. Virginia’s share of the funding totaled $189 million. 

The five-year Rural Health Transformation Fund was created alongside Medicaid reductions that health policy researchers have warned could put additional pressure on rural providers. 

“If Democrats win, like the president said, they will undo all of that,” McGuire said. 

Trump, in turn, praised McGuire as a reliable supporter of his agenda. 

“John McGuire has been a rock solid vote for strong borders, low taxes, low regulations, strong military, and supporting our vets,” Trump said. 

The president also attacked Perriello as a “left-wing radical lunatic who spent years working for George Soros.” Perriello previously led the U.S. operation of Open Society Foundations, the philanthropic network founded by Soros. 

McGuire has gone further himself, calling Perriello a “communist” while arguing that his policies would increase taxes, government spending and energy costs.  

Energy has become another dividing line in the race. 

McGuire supported legislation passed by the House aimed at shielding residential customers from some electricity costs associated with data centers. He also said local communities should decide where the facilities are built. 

Perriello campaigns on affordability and independence

Perriello grew up in Albemarle County and graduated from Yale College and Yale Law School.

After leaving Congress in 2011, he held several diplomatic and foreign policy posts under Democratic administrations, including serving as a special envoy for the Great Lakes region of Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo. 

He ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for Virginia governor in 2017. 

In an interview with The Mercury in Richmond last week, Perriello pointed to the new Washington Post-Schar School poll as evidence that his reach exceeds the Democratic base in his district.  

“We’re really building a broad coalition of common sense, and you can feel it at the door, and you can see it in the early vote numbers,” he said. 

His campaign has put affordability near the center of its argument against McGuire. 

Perriello said some of his first priorities in Congress would be ending the war in Iran, reclaiming congressional authority over tariffs and reversing federal healthcare changes that he says are pushing costs higher. 

“We’ve got to get to universal affordable care, whether that’s through Medicare for all or another plan,” he said. “But I don’t think that’s going to happen in the next two years.”

More immediately, he wants Congress to restore enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies and protect Medicaid. The enhanced subsidies expired at the end of 2025, while Republicans’ tax-and-spending law made separate changes to Medicaid eligibility and financing that Virginia health leaders say could force 600,000 Virginians off the program.

Perriello also referred to his first stint in Congress when talking about politically difficult votes. 

He supported the Affordable Care Act in 2010, a vote that became a major issue in his unsuccessful reelection bid later that year. 

His argument now is that members of Congress should be willing to take those risks rather than simply follow their party of president. 

“A member of Congress does not work for the president. A member of Congress works for the people in the district,” Perriello said.

Data centers give the candidates another issue on which to make that case. 

Perriello criticized tax provisions in Republicans’ 2025 law that allow businesses to deduct certain investments more quickly, arguing that they benefit data center developers while Washington does too little to protect workers from automation. The provisions are available more broadly to businesses and are not limited to data centers. 

He also said local communities should decide whether to welcome the facilities and negotiate protections for residents. 

Perriello opposes the Valley Link transmission line, which would run across Central Virginia toward Northern Virginia as utilities respond to rising electric demand, much of it associated with data center growth. 

Asked about McGuire’s ideological attacks, Perriello returned to the pocketbook issues he has emphasized throughout his campaign. 

“This doesn’t bring down diesel costs. It doesn’t bring down gas prices,” he said. 

Harvey rejects two-party system

Independent Harvey, a Delaware native who has lived in Amherst County since 2012, says voters deserve an alternative to both major parties. 

Harvey has worked in engineering, surveying and wilderness therapy with at-risk youth. He has never held political office and says he would serve only one term and accept no monetary donations. 

In a phone interview with The Mercury Friday, Harvey blamed partisan division for congressional failures on immigration reform, war and government funding.

“I am for a unified America, I am for the collaboration of ideas,” he said. 

Harvey said he supports eliminating tax incentives for data centers and backing communities that oppose them, citing residents’ concerns about water and electricity costs. 

“If they don’t want a data center in their community, I would support them,” he said.

Early voting is underway through Oct. 31. Election Day is Nov. 3. Read The Mercury’s voter guide to learn more about the candidates and stakes of the congressional races.