Mountain State Poll shows close races for federal offices

Montana’s two most talked about federal races — for the U.S. Senate and western U.S. House seat — are still competitive, based on a poll conducted by Montana State University-Billings in October. 

The school has conducted the Mountain State Poll since 1989 as part of its Media, Public Opinion and Polling class, offering a long-running look at Montanans’ opinions on various policy issues and the state’s elected officials. 

The most recent edition, released this week, showed Republican Kurt Alme leading the field of U.S. Senate candidates by four points over independent Seth Bodnar, and nine points over Democrat Alani Bankhead. 

In western Montana, respondents favored Democratic candidate Sam Forstag over Republican Aaron Flint 49-32. 

“Especially in district one, according to what we’re seeing and in other polls we’ve seen, it’s very close and people might be likely to split tickets,” said Hope Gentry, who leads the class and poll. 

The Mountain State Poll collected 720 responses via phone and online, with a 3.6% margin of error. The western Congressional district question had a 5.7% margin of error. 

The poll also showed high disapproval for Congress as a whole, and prevailing negative opinions of all four of Montana’s federal delegation. 

“It was particularly interesting to me how frustrated people seem to be with the status quo,” Gentry said. “Congressional approval is the lowest since I’ve been involved. And they’re always unpopular but this is very unpopular, especially for our delegation.” 

Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte, entering the final quarter of his tenure, holds the highest approval rating for elected officials, with 35% of respondents approving and 30% disapproving of his job performance. 

The poll, which had questions written by students, also queried respondents on their attitudes toward artificial intelligence and data centers (49% use AI in daily life, but 65% disapprove of building data centers); the war in Iran (55% disapprove of U.S. military action); and trust in the Centers for Disease Control (37% say it decreased after COVID-19).

Most respondents said they felt Montana was classified as a “red” state (60%), but more than half said their support of a party is issue dependent. 

As with all polls, Gentry said this one must be taken within its context — responses were conducted over a much longer period than is typical of national political firms, it takes more time to compile results, and it did not screen just for registered or likely voters, but it still provides a wide-lens snapshot of statewide sentiment. 

And it educates students about polling and politics — which is a main goal. 

“It changes their preconceived notions about what other people in this state think,” Gentry said. “They come into this thinking people have pretty black and white opinions on things, but they realize there’s a lot more nuance to the people of Montana.”