Michigan and Ohio are continuing their electoral divergence: A look at the 2024 numbers

While pundits, politicians, and political scientists debate the meanings of the 2024 elections, one thing seems fairly clear: Michigan and Ohio are continuing their electoral divergence. We see this with the states’ presidential and Senate votes, as well as with overall voter turnout. Results suggest that Michigan will remain a competitive state, while much would have to change for Ohio to regain its swing state status.

Both Michigan and Ohio voted to give all of their electoral votes to Donald Trump in 2024, but by very different margins. Official results show Trump carrying Michigan by 1.4 percentage points. In 2020 the difference in Michigan was 2.78 points for Joe Biden. Ohio, on the other hand, went for Trump in 2024 by a margin of 11.2 percentage points. In 2020 the margin in Ohio for Trump was just 8.03 points.  

While Michigan moved more toward Trump than Ohio did (4.18 points v. 3.17), and in fact flipped from Democratic to Republican in the presidential election, Trump’s winning margin was sufficiently small there that national campaigns are very likely to continue to consider Michigan a swing state. Ohio now is so far in the Republican camp it is unlikely presidential campaigns will be investing here anytime soon.

In terms of Michigan’s and Ohio’s Senate elections, the results appear to have diverged substantially. In Michigan, Democrat Elisa Slotkin came out victorious by 0.3 percentage points, thereby outperforming the Democratic presidential ticket by 1.7 percentage points.  

Meanwhile, in Ohio, Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown was defeated by Republican challenger Bernie Moreno by 3.6 percentage points. Brown significantly over-performed compared with the Democratic presidential ticket, yet it was not enough to stave off defeat. It is unclear if there is another Democrat who could have performed so well against such strong headwinds in the state, which bodes ill for the party’s future here. The Democratic Party’s bench in Ohio does not appear to be very deep, but candidates can emerge from statewide obscurity to success, especially if the electorate is in a mood for change. The 2026 special U.S. Senate election will certainly be interesting.  

Something interesting also happened with regard to overall turnout. Let’s look at the total number of votes for president in each state. There were 5,664,186 total presidential votes cast in Michigan, whereas in Ohio the total was 5,767,788. That these numbers are very close is important, given that Ohio has 1.7 million more people than Michigan does.  

While Michigan was considered a swing state and both presidential campaigns spent a ton of money there, Ohio was not a focus of the presidential campaigns. On the other hand, both states had extremely competitive U.S. Senate elections, with Ohio’s Senate election being the most expensive in the country.

There are plausible explanations for these turnout differences. Michigan has election day voter registration. In Ohio, you have to be registered to vote 30 days before an election. Michigan has a citizens’ redistricting commission to draw state legislative and Congressional district boundaries. Ohio uses a partisan redistricting commission. Political scientists know that competitive elections matter when it comes to turnout.  

Ohio voters had the opportunity to adopt through initiated constitutional amendment a redistricting plan similar to Michigan’s but it failed 54% to 46%. Full analysis of why it failed will take some time, but the complexity of the ballot language is likely one of the culprits. The fact that for the foreseeable future Ohio is unlikely to have very many competitive legislative elections does not bode well for turnout or the development of a bench of Democratic candidates who can successfully compete statewide.  

The divergence between Ohio and Michigan is most evident when looking at voters’ candidate preferences. While the two states have diverged in their support for parties and candidates, this does not mean that the two states have diverged as much on the issues. The arguably confusing redistricting initiative aside, both states have voted in favor of initiatives protecting reproductive rights and legalizing recreational marijuana.  

While Ohio and Michigan each voted to give all of their electoral votes to Donald Trump in 2024, the states’ electoral divergence has continued. Michigan is competitive, and Ohio is not, and the things that Michigan did that make them more competitive remain elusive in Ohio.