Majority or bust: Michigan parties make final push for legislative control

Much of the 2026 election attention has been on Michigan’s must-watch U.S. Senate and congressional races, but the battle for control of the state Legislature has emerged as another major contest.

In a highly favorable year for Michigan Democrats, the party is hoping that President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, pegged at 57% in a recent Marist poll, and stagnant economy on his watch will help the party retake the Michigan House, hold the state Senate and retain the governor’s office. 

“Our candidates have worked hard this cycle to build strong campaigns that highlight the issues Michiganders care about,” state Sen. Darrin Camilleri (D-Trenton) said in a statement. “We are looking forward to returning to the Senate in January with an expanded majority to continue our work in building a Michigan where everyone can live and thrive.”

But the state’s Republicans, despite warning signs the GOP might have a bad year, are aiming to retain their current House majority and retake the Senate. That hope is at least partly based on the potential to exploit the controversies connected to U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed.

“With El-Sayed at the top of the ticket, the Senate Republicans are on offense, and the Senate Democrats know it,” Sen. Roger Hauck, R-Mount Pleasant (R-Mount Pleasant) said in a statement. “They’re so desperate that they’re spending $1.3 million they don’t have. Every target district’s early and absentee voting is more Republican than it was in 2022, when Republicans lost shared control of the chamber by 400 votes. The Democratic majority ends Nov. 3.”

The Senate Republican Campaign Committee has made a final round of ad purchases to try and make that goal a reality.

Democrats like their chances to expand Senate majority

For the Senate’s Democrats, who currently control the chamber, the most favorable scenario on Nov. 3 would be to hold what seats they have while also expanding their majority by flipping three long-sought after Republican districts.

“The momentum is clearly behind Democrats this election, and across the board, Senate Democrats have strong, passionate candidates who are ready to fight for working families,” Olivia Bradish, spokesperson for the Michigan Senate Democrats said. Bradish added that they have “heavily invested to ensure Democrats defend and expand” their Senate Majority.

At the top of that list is the 9th District held by Republican Sen. Michael Webber of Rochester Hills. He faces Democratic nominee Dr. Theresa Brooks of Troy. Democrats are hoping to defeat Webber, a longtime legislator and a leader in the Senate Republican caucus, and said that Brooks has been knocking on doors almost every day since she won a tough three-way primary. 

Brooks has also outraised Webber, picking up a little more than $320,000 in the latest reporting period, while  Webber raised just under $220,000.

While protecting Webber’s seat is a major priority for the GOP, Democrats are confident that Brooks has the resources, community support and motivation to win.

Next on the list of hoped-for Democratic pickups is the 30th District, held by GOP Sen. Mark Huizenga of Walker. He faces Democratic challenger state Rep. Carol Glanville, also of Walker. Democrats believe Glanville is in a comfortable position and that West Michigan is showing signs of shifting toward greater support for their party and candidates — a trend the party has noticed over the last few years. 

While her roots in the community were helping Glanville, the party noted she’s also outraised Huizenga in the latest period. Huizenga raised just north of $100,000 during the latest reporting period, whereas Glanville raised a little more than $300,000.

Regardless, Republicans also feel good about Huizenga’s chances, touting his bipartisan voting record — which the party said was among the most bipartisan records of any sitting state senator — and the fact that he’s worked hard for the district as its senator over the past four years.

The third pickup opportunity being eyed by Democrats is West Michigan’s 32nd District. Republican state Sen. Jon Bumstead of North Muskegon cannot seek reelection due to term limits, setting up a fight between Democrat Rebecca Amidon and Republican Mason County Sheriff Kim Cole. Although Cole is well established in the district, having served as sheriff since 2013, Democrats believe Amidon is a strong enough candidate to be spending heavily on TV advertising in the district deep into the election cycle.

While winning the district will be a challenge for Amidon given its history as a safe seat for Republicans, Democrats said her message aimed at working families was resonating amid Trump’s economic woes.

That said, the GOP is confident Cole will put the race away early on election night, noting that the seat is still trending toward the Republican Party despite changes in West Michigan demographics that have trended toward Democrats.

Hertel legislative legacy included in must hold seats for Senate Dems

Tops on the list of must-hold Senate seats are Sen. Kevin Hertel’s 12th District and the open 13th District race to replace retiring Sen. Rosemary Bayer. 

Republicans have made defeating Hertel a priority, with a barrage of recent ads highlighting his family’s political dynasty as reason to reject him in favor of Republican John Goldwater. Democrats said this will be a tough seat to hold onto, as Hertel won in 2022 by just more than 400 votes, but the positive environment for the party has them optimistic about Hertel’s chances. 

Republicans, meanwhile, are all in on Goldwater’s prospects to flip in Hertel’s seat. They’ve highlighted not only Hertel’s family political dynasty, but also his voting record aligning with Democrats in what was a +7.5 Trump district in 2024.

In the 13th District, Democrat Sean Carlson has similarly been working hard, with more than 5,000 doors knocked in his race against Republican former state Rep. Ryan Berman of Commerce Township. Berman previously sought and lost the GOP nomination for attorney general in 2022. Democrats were optimistic after Carlson outraised Berman nearly 10-to-1 in the last reporting period, gaining more than $364,000 to Berman’s approximately $38,000.

Senate Republicans, however, believe the newly drawn district allows a better chance for Berman to pick up the seat. They’re also banking on Berman’s district having a high population of Jewish voters, who might end up breaking for Republicans due to issues with El-Sayed.

56 seats is the goal for House Democrats this year

The Michigan House Democratic caucus currently holds 52 seats and just needs four more to hold a majority in the lower chamber of the Legislature, which they lost control of in 2024. The party is eyeing nine potential winnable seats out of the 12 that it has targeted, and campaign operatives said that the other three offer some cautious optimism.

“We feel very good about our chances of taking back the House on Nov. 3,” Sam Lundry, executive director of the Michigan House Democratic Fund, said. “We have excellent candidates who know their communities and hear every day from people who need some relief from rising costs. Matt Hall and House Republicans are stuck defending the GOP record of corruption and higher costs, and that’s a tough sell to families watching their bills go up. We have multiple paths to a majority, and we’re taking nothing for granted.”

Among the top targets for a flip is the 27th House District, where state Rep. Rylee Linting (R-Wyandotte) is seeking reelection to the seat she won in 2024 against its former incumbent, Jamie Churches, also of Wyandotte. Democrats feel good about the race for Churches, due to her reputation as one of the House campaign arm’s hardest working candidates, along with hopes that the Trump effect puts the seat back into play. They’ve backed that optimism with cash, as Gongwer reported Thursday on a $200,000 television ad buy to support Churches.

Another key rematch for the House this cycle is state Rep. Steve Frisbie (R-Battle Creek) versus Democratic former state Rep. Jim Haadsma in the 44th District. Haadsma lost the district to Frisbie in 2024 by just 79 votes and Democrats like their chances of surmounting that small gap this cycle..

Another chance for Democrats to gain a House seat is in Oakland County, where state Rep. Donni Steele (R-Orion Township) is not seeking reelection to the 54th District, instead seeking election to the state Senate in the 23rd district. 

Sarah Pounds is the Democratic nominee, while Roman Gaskey was nominated by the GOP. The signs are positive for Pounds, who has been supported by national Democrats, with both California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg campaigning for her. Additionally, Pounds polled more than 12,000 votes in the August primary, where she ran unopposed, which was almost 3,000 more votes than Gaskey and his primary opponent received.

State Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills), the incumbent in the adjacent 55th District, is seeking reelection and faces Democrat Alexander Hawkins, a military veteran whose job with the Michigan National Guard was defusing bombs. Party operatives believe his military ties can buck the narrative that Democrats running in this cycle are El-Sayed or William Lawrence-style progressives with some baggage.

Other targets for potential Democratic seat expansion include the 68th, 86th and 109th House Districts. Although these seats, on paper, appear harder to flip, the Democrats are cautiously optimistic.

State Rep. David Martin (R-Davison) is the incumbent in the 68th District, Rep. Nancy DeBoer (R-Holland) currently holds the 86th District, and Rep. Karl Bohnak (R-Deerton) represents the 109th District. Each is seeking reelection in what are typically safe Republican seats.

The anti-incumbent environment has Democrats feeling good about their chances, especially in the West Michigan seat held by DeBoer, who is facing Democratic challenger Joseph McClusky, and the Upper Peninsula seat held by Bohnak, who is fending off a strong challenge by Democrat Anna Aho Rink. 

The trend line showing West Michigan becoming bluer over the past few cycles and the fact that El-Sayed drew big crowds up north during his campaign swings puts those two seats, in particular, in the potential pickup category for Democrats.

As both parties target a handful of competitive races to try and tip the scales, control of the Legislature will ultimately depend on whether Democrats can translate a favorable political environment into gains in districts that have long eluded them, while Republicans are betting that incumbency and the divisions surrounding El-Sayed can blunt Democratic momentum.