Lisa Demuth leads in Minnesota GOP gubernatorial straw polls on precinct caucus night

House Speaker Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, was on her way to a strong showing in the Republican gubernatorial straw poll at precinct caucuses Tuesday night. With over two-thirds of the vote counted, the state’s first Black House speaker was leading, while Kendall Qualls, an Army veteran and former health care executive, came in a strong second. MyPillow guy Mike Lindell was running in third, while other candidates were far behind.

Straw polls for gubernatorial candidates were taken at precinct caucuses across the state Tuesday, during which party activists elected delegates as part of the months-long process for endorsing a nominee for governor, U.S. Senate and other key positions.

The outcome of statewide straw polls is a key test of candidates’ ability to draw grassroots support, though historically, the winner of the precinct caucus poll has not consistently predicted who is eventually chosen as the party’s candidate.

In December, Qualls won the straw poll of the party’s State Central Committee, which includes roughly 300 of the party’s most engaged activists. Qualls is currently leading in campaign donations, followed by state Rep. Kristin Robbins and Demuth.

Fraud top of mind

At the south metro Senate District 57 caucus, fraud was the theme of the night.

The Walz administration has faced local criticism for years, turbocharged by recent national scrutiny, for how it has handled fraud in Minnesota’s social safety net programs.

Republicans gathered in the cafeteria of Lakeville North High School, grouped by precinct, to discuss who would best handle fraud in state-run public programs, immigration and other issues. Among the 215 delegates, 97 said they preferred Demuth, followed by 37 for Qualls.

Lakeville is in the 2nd Congressional District, Minnesota’s most competitive. Sen. Eric Pratt, R-Prior Lake, and Tyler Kistner are the Republicans running to replace U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, who is running for the U.S. Senate. Rep. Kaela Berg, DFL-Burnsville, Sen. Matt Klein, DFL-Mendota Heights, and former DFL Sen. Matt Little are also running for the seat.

Mark Priore, an attorney who works with vulnerable adults who use state-run Medicaid waiver programs susceptible fraud, waste and abuse, said he found Demuth to be the best candidate for her ability to “work with different parties, groups, factions.”

“That’s really what you need, because the governor doesn’t do anything. The governor just kind of puts people together,” Priore said.

Lynae Grossman said she likes Demuth’s legislative experience.

Demuth “just wants things to be done more effectively and efficiently,” Grossman said, adding that she still wants to look more closely at all the candidates.

Mark Holland, a banker, was one of the 10% of undecided delegates at the Lakeville caucus, but he said that any Republican governor would do a better job handling fraud than Walz.

Republicans talk ICE

The Trump administration has used the fraud issue to justify sending 3,000 immigration agents to the state — an aggressive campaign during which federal agents have killed two Americans, Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

Caucus attendees at Lakeville said that local resistance to federal immigration enforcement, along with Democratic leadership that has encouraged that resistance, has escalated the chaos.

The Trump administration sent hundreds of additional immigration agents following the killing of Renee Good. Holland blames the resistance to ICE as part of the increase in enforcement.

“If (the protesters) wanted less, they could have just not done that,” he said.

The killings of Pretti and Good were “not good,” Holland said, but he said they were “inevitable” given protesters’ tactics.

Gabby Feldman, a marketing manager in Lakeville, said that she thinks “there could have been a way where leadership could have cooperated where things could have gone better on both sides. Both the federal government and the state government could have cooperated early on.”

State Sen. Zach Duckworth, R-Lakeville, said that the arrival of border czar Tom Homan makes him optimistic for the future of federal immigration activity in Minnesota, which he said he hopes will involve more relationships with local law enforcement and elected officials, as well as safer tactics by federal agents. In the immediate aftermath of Pretti’s killing, Duckworth advocated for a “tactical pause” in an X post.