Latest poll shows Gov. Phil Scott and Amanda Janoo in tightest race in a decade

A Vermont election poll on the upcoming governor’s race suggests it might be the closest in a decade.

The most recent University of New Hampshire Green Mountain State Poll released this week reported that 49% of Vermonters support Amanda Janoo in the November election, while 43% support incumbent Gov. Phil Scott.

The 6% margin led UNH pollsters to declare the Governor’s race a “statistical tie.” In a July poll released by the same group, Scott led Janoo by 15% meaning the recent numbers account for a 21-point swing.

The poll also reported former Democratic Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray leading Republican incumbent John Rodgers 54% to 35% in the lieutenant governor race. U.S. Rep. Becca Balint, D-Vt., comfortably leads the state’s one congressional race with a 35% margin against Republican nominee Gerald Mallo. 

Scott’s approval rating, according to the poll, has fallen 5% since July, sitting at 47%. In the October 2025 Green Mountain State Poll, the incumbent’s approval rating was 61% with a majority of Vermonters supporting a reelection bid. 

In a press release Thursday, Scott’s campaign manager Dustin Degree criticized UNH’s polling methods, specifically its partisan split. Some 60% of those surveyed self-identified as Democrats, 31% as Republicans and 9% as Independent.

Scott has historically held significant bipartisan support, but after a series of vetos on progressive bills, some Vermonters have said they’re looking for change.

Degree cited UNH’s 2024 poll, which predicted a 28% margin of victory for Scott, who went on to win reelection by more than 50%. He called Thursday’s poll “statistical malpractice.”

“The good news is, besides exciting headlines and political posturing, outlier polls don’t matter,” the press release reads. “Election Day does.”

Janoo’s grassroots campaign was successful in the primary election. She defeated Aly Richards by just over 3%. Janoo, an economist and first-time political candidate, described her democratic primary election victory as a “long-shot.”  

In a press release, Janoo’s team wrote that the poll’s results reflected what they had heard “on the ground every day.”

“Vermonters are tired of a status quo that’s failing us,” the press release said. “We’re tired of managed decline for our state. We’re looking for hope and leadership that believes in Vermont. Together, we can not only win this election, but build a better future.”

Thursday’s poll teed up November’s general election, based on 882 survey responses collected last week. The data were weighted based on demographic information from the U.S. Census and 2024 election results, according to the survey. 

This story will be updated.

Read the story on VTDigger here: Latest poll shows Gov. Phil Scott and Amanda Janoo in tightest race in a decade.