It doesn't fly, it informs

There are 40 days remaining before the midterm elections, which I only just now realized coincide with my children’s 4th birthday. (Pause while I make a note to stock up on coffee.) That feels like an alarmingly small number of days  probably because we’ve been discussing and analyzing this election for so long that it began to feel like a hypothetical event way off in the distant future. 

The future is here, I guess. We still don’t have flying cars, but we do have election news! (It doesn’t fly, but it does inform!*) Today, it’s all about the issue that’s turned this election on its head: Abortion.

*Newsletter campaign slogan

The Big Takeaway

Midterm elections are almost always brutal for whichever party holds the White House. In the past century, the president’s party has gained congressional seats only three times, most recently in 2002. (Shout-out to George W. Bush’s post-9/11 approval ratings.)  There’s no definitive reason for the trend, but there are a few consistent factors among the losses.

First, turnout tends to be lower in midterm elections. And when turnout is lower, more of the voters tend to be angry (about, say, Obamacare) than complacent (“Abortion is legal, I’m voting to keep it that way,” is not really a thing). When disgruntled voters turn out in droves, the usual result is what’s known as the “presidential penalty,” which effectively turns the midterm election into a referendum on the guy who isn’t on the ballot. 

The upcoming midterms seemed to be following that script at the beginning of the year, when Republicans held a slight polling edge over Democrats. That advantage petered out around March and the parties ran roughly even until May, when a draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade leaked from the U.S. Supreme Court. Democrats pulled ahead shortly after, then widened their gap when the court officially nixed the constitutional right to abortion. As of Monday, the party remained ahead by 4 percentage points.

Four percent isn’t a comfortable lead, but it is a notable one, and it’s mostly because of abortion. Almost two-thirds of Americans believed that abortion should be legal before the court overturned Roe; virtually the same percentage still feel that way — and it’s motivated a lot of them. Post-Roe, we’ve seen spikes in voter registration among young adults and leftward shifts among many key demographics, including women.

It’s a charged environment that favors Democrats — and one that worries anti-abortion Republicans. It’s particularly dicey for conservative candidates in competitive districts, who have been forced to walk the political tightrope of softening their abortion stance enough to woo moderate voters, but not so much that they alienate their core right-wing base. It’s a tough balance, and it’s on display in Michigan, where state Rep. Jack O’Malley lost an endorsement from an anti-abortion group after telling some voters he would consider exceptions to any abortion ban, the Michigan Advance reported.

O’Malley has voted for proposals that restrict abortion, though his website does not list a specific stance on abortion, which remains legal in Michigan while a pre-Roe ban is on hold pending multiple legal challenges. But his comments in one-on-one conversations with constituents were enough for Right To Life Michigan to pull their support for his re-election. (The group, according to its website, doesn’t support abortion ban exceptions for victims of rape or incest.) 

O’Malley didn’t respond to a request for comment, but his opponent — Grand Traverse County Commissioner Betsy Coffia, a Democrat — was happy to offer her thoughts. O’Malley’s voting record “speaks for itself,” she said.

“I think voters are smart, and they understand that it’s an election year and that Jack’s party just did an incredibly unpopular thing by stripping away reproductive freedom and overturning Roe,” she added.

In Arizona, a Republican attorney general sided with Democrats in asking Gov. Doug Ducey to call a special legislative session to decide which of the state’s two abortion bans should stand. Both policies — a new policy that bans the procedure after 15 weeks of pregnancy and a Civil War-era law that prohibits virtually all abortions — are technically active, which is (shockingly!) creating confusion for patients, providers, and people everywhere, the Arizona Mirror reported.

The laws have coexisted for months, a quirk of state government that became chaotic last week when a judge ruled that the 1864 law — on hold for 49 years under Roe — could once again take effect. Ducey, a Republican, has repeatedly said that the 15-week ban supersedes the older law — even though the bill itself states specifically that it doesn’t constitute a repeal. In other words, the 15-week ban supersedes Ducey’s claim that the 15-week ban supersedes the older law, and that’s why abortion proponents and Democrats would prefer that he call a special legislative session to (officially) repeal it.

Attorney General Mark Brnovich’s office echoed the request on Wednesday, saying in a letter that Ducey comments did not indicate “a clear position” and were being used in legal arguments by abortion proponents to undermine the total ban.

“(We) request that you call a special session of the Arizona Legislature so that legislators may have an opportunity to give additional clarity about our abortion laws based on feedback they may be receiving from their constituents,” wrote Solicitor General Beau Roysden.

Until then, he continued, “it is the position of our office that … [the 1864 law] is now in effect statewide.”

As of Thursday morning, Ducey’s office was “still in the process of reviewing” the letter, per a spokesperson. Until then, Ducey’s opinion “remains intact.”

Other things for your review: Donations are sparse for Alaska constitutional convention vote, disclosures show … (Alaska) Race for Yukon-Kuskokwim House seat pits youth against experience … (Arizona) Strange bedfellows: Brnovich and Dems both want Ducey to call a special session to resolve abortion law confusion … (Kansas) After Wichita mom stars in Schmidt attack ad, defenders of Kelly as ‘education governor’ pounce … (Maryland) Non-Tawes political notes: campaign finance miscreants, election timetable, new TV ads, new area code and more … Michigan election worker charged with tampering with primary election equipment … Question 1 would put equal rights into Nevada Constitution … (Nevada) Ad campaign warns Marchant seeks to end early voting, vote by mail … (Pennsylvania) F&M poll shows Oz gaining GOP favorability, while Shapiro maintains lead … Targeting three congressional seats, Republicans blitz South Texas with attack ads

Caught Our Eye

This story from the Wisconsin Examiner is an excellent look at “forgotten” rural voters and the difficulties of waging a statewide campaign in the era of gerrymandering and hyperpartisanship. 

From the Newsrooms

• (Florida) The fate of power outages: Recovery from Ian could take days, weeks, with full extent unknown
• Accreditor’s loss of federal recognition puts three Virginia schools at risk
• (New Hampshire) DHHS issues ‘all call’ to keep Sununu Youth Services Center staffed
• Under federal $1 billion agreement, Oregon will expand Medicaid coverage
• Arkansas, five other states sue Biden administration to block student loan forgiveness plan

One Last Thing

McDonald’s will offer adult Happy Meals starting Monday, each with a meal and a classic McDonald’s character: Grimace, the Hamburglar, Birdie or … Cactus Buddy?

The new guy is a yellow lump and is (I think?) a tie-in with Cactus Plant Flea Market, a streetwear brand that’s partnering with McDonald’s on the month-long promotion. The restaurant’s chief marketing officer described the project as  a “hyper-relevant” repackaging of “one of the most nostalgic McDonald’s experiences,” which I guess is sort of accurate, because I do have vivid memories of being wildly disappointed by the toy in my Happy Meal. 

Condolences to anyone who’s hoping for Grimace (the obvious choice) and ends up with butter-yellow cactus man.

This edition of the Evening Wrap published on September 29, 2022. Subscribe here.