If Biden loses, it will be because Democrats defeated him

President Joe Biden performed a remarkable, some would say historical, State of the Union address that sent Democratic hopes soaring toward his reelection chances. He was sharp, on occasion humorous, and handled the Republican challenges well.

Many of his party members felt he had laid to rest the question of his age. Cash contributions to his campaign and the Democratic National Committee reached near record totals. What now, given his opponents own struggles, could possibly go wrong?

I am a centrist Democrat, I know what could go wrong. Will Rogers was right when he said, “I belong to no organized political party, I am a Democrat.” This is what could go wrong. Former President Donald Trump is running against a Democrat, and we are skilled in turning victory into defeat. Too many examples exist to cite them all, but more than one come to mind.

Remember, as much of the Republican Party likes to express frustration with the far-right wing of their own party, the donkeys have a very similar problem on the far left or the so-called ultra liberals. They are born with a streak of dissatisfaction, and they feel their constitutional right to remain so until death or the arrival of utopia here on earth, which ever first occurs.

In Biden’s reelection effort, the first factor to consider should be cumulation. Our national media, to prove their coverage of President Donald Trump wasn’t biased, decided to report on the Biden presidency with a very critical eye, which the left decided to enhance with a slogan of “never good enough.” Thus, whatever the president achieved, for example a diplomatic miracle in recognizing, warning, and then marshalling the assets to defend against Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine basically occurred without praise from his own party.

Another illustration would be the passage of a real bipartisan infrastructure bill, including highways rebuilt, broadband expanded, and utilities aided, and from the left came the condemning observation that it wasn’t enough.

A second limitation on the president’s chances is the realistic observation that many on the far left are reluctant to support him. Ironically, Trump faces the same erosion of support from his moderate GOP base. It almost seems the election will be decided by attrition. Our commander-in-chief may well gain former Trump voters, but at the same time lose leftist Dems at the same or higher rate. I am inclined to believe that more Republican moderates will vote for Biden, if only as the lesser of two evils. Purist Democrats, who expect perfection from their elected leaders, could well vote simply “none of the above.”

Recent polls should also temper Democratic optimism. In Michigan, a state the president must carry, Trump comes in a 40% in a CNN poll released March 22, while Biden was at 34%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 18% and independent Cornel West had 4%. Biden is running only 16 points above a fringe candidate.

Nationally, the latest CBS News poll shows Trump at 52% and at Biden 48%. Firmly illustrating the president’s problem was that, within Michigan, Biden’s approval rating was an astonishing low 70%, while Trump’s stood at 80%.

This brings us to the beauty of business, art, and the science of political life. Each individual voter has the right to cast their ballot as they deem appropriate. The narrow view holds that they should vote for who they feel is the best candidate irrespective of whether that individual has a realistic chance of prevailing. The late Sen. George McGovern rose in the polls just before the 1984 caucus results were announced by urging caucus attenders to “vote your conscience.”

But what good is an individual’s belief if their vote results in the election of the person they most want to defeat?  This year, the day after the election, if you are a Democrat and didn’t vote for Biden, when you are asked “Who did you vote for?” tell the truth and say with pride, “I voted to make Donald Trump president.”

Trump will win, not because significant numbers of Republicans left him, which they will, but because more Democrats didn’t back their own party’s nominee.