From governor to Congress to Senate speaker, how the Lookout is following TN’s midterm election

Tennessee will elect a new governor in Tuesday’s election, but down-ballot races for the U.S. House and the state legislature could also affect congressional map redrawings and the election of the next state Senate speaker. 

Polling suggests the Democratic Party nationwide is expected to have a strong night nationally, but how that translates to Tennessee, a state that President Donald Trump won by nearly 30 percentage points in the 2024 election, is a major question. 

Any Democratic upsets of GOP incumbents in the Tennessee state Senate could decide who Republicans elect as the speaker to replace retiring Lt. Gov. Randy McNally. 

Tennessee’s Senate speaker automatically becomes the lieutenant governor and first to take over in case the governor is incapacitated. 

Tuesday’s election will also be the first time Republicans’ new gerrymandered U.S. Congressional map will face an electoral test, and Democrats in the state House are looking to gain seats for the first time in 30 years. 

Here’s what reporters at the Lookout will be watching Tuesday night.

Does Blackburn crack 50% in the governor’s race? Can independent Hatley hand a win to Democrat Jerri Green? 

Tennessee hasn’t elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 2006, when Gov. Phil Bredesen won reelection. As the GOP nominee, Blackburn is favored to beat Democratic nominee Memphis City Councilmember Jerri Green. 

But independent candidate David Hatley has spent almost $12 million of his own money to make it a three-way race. Hatley, a hot tub mogul from Washington County and self-described conservative, could play spoiler if he pulls votes from Blackburn. 

For Hatley to become a true spoiler, he will need more than 20% of the vote. But if he gets around 10%, he could force Blackburn to become the first person elected governor of Tennessee since 1938 to not receive 50% of the vote.

State Senate races in Knoxville, Murfreesboro, Memphis and Chattanooga could make or break Johnson’s speaker bid

Senate Majority Leader Jack Johnson, a Franklin Republican, has been spending heavily on a handful of colleagues this year as he faces Sen. Paul Bailey, a Sparta Republican, in a tight battle Nov. 10 for the Senate speaker’s seat.

Johnson’s PAC contributions this year dwarf Bailey’s by about $450,000 to $63,900, yet the two lawmakers are believed to be separated by only one vote in the speakership race, with two or three uncommitted senators as the caucus election draws near.

It will take 14 votes within the 27-member caucus to capture the Senate speaker’s post unless a Republican incumbent is upset on election night.

Spoilers or contenders? Two independent candidates for TN governor try to shake up the race

Tennessee’s Senate is skewed toward Republicans, who control 81% of the seats, despite Democrats receiving around 34% of the presidential vote in 2024. Only seven of the seats held by Republicans have a partisan lean of less than 60% toward the GOP.

Traditionally, seats with less than 60% GOP support have a higher chance of flipping in a wave election, and four of those are up for election this cycle. Sens. Richard Briggs, Brent Taylor, Bo Watson, and Dawn White hold those seats, but each is barely under the 60% threshold.

Johnson’s political action committee, JACK PAC, has spent money on campaign advertising or given direct contributions to all four members. During the general election, he has spent around $35,000 supporting White and more than $28,000 attacking Taylor’s Democratic opponent.  

Johnson said Monday he is not trying to shore up support in advance of the caucus election.

“My focus is on electing Republicans and protecting our Senate Republican supermajority so we can continue advancing conservative policies important to Tennesseans,” Johnson said in a statement to the Lookout.

Bailey’s PAC has donated to White’s PAC, but he hasn’t spent any money on advertisements to boost candidates or attack their Democratic opponents. His PAC also gave to Sens. Ferrell Haile, Bill Powers and Ed Jackson.

The PACs for Johnson and Bailey have given to former House member Jimmy Matlock, who is expected to win the seat being vacated by Lt. Gov. Randy McNally. 

Will the May gerrymandering of Tennessee’s U.S. House map hold?

Republicans are trying to stretch their U.S. House majority in the state from 8-1 to 9-0, after redrawing the state’s map in May, following a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court that states with a history of racial discrimination no longer had to create majority-minority congressional districts.

The new map created nine districts that Trump carried in 2024 by at least 60%. Cook Political Report, an independent news outlet that analyzes federal races, rated all of Tennessee’s districts as Solid Republican. 

But national Democrats are spending money to contest U.S. House Districts 5 and 9.

Taylor, an Eads Republican, faces Memphis Democratic Rep. Justin J. Pearson in the 9th District race.

Former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, a Republican, faces Chaz Molder, Columbia’s Democratic mayor, in a race for U.S. House District 5. 

One sign of hope for Democrats is that in a statewide U.S. Senate race in 2018, the last midterm election when Trump was president, under the current district lines, Democrats narrowly lost both districts 5 and 9 by less than 0.5%.

Democrats are trying to flip three state House seats, GOP two

Democrats will not gain a majority in the state House, but the party is trying to flip seats in Clarksville, Knoxville and Memphis in several 2024 rematches.

The most flippable is a Memphis district held by GOP state Rep. John Gillespie. The District 97 seat is the only one a Republican holds in the state legislature that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election. 

Gillespie is matched up against Democrat Jesse Huseth again this year after narrowly defeating him in 2024.

Republicans’ top pickup opportunity is a Clarksville seat held by Democratic state Rep. Ronnie Glynn. Trump carried the District 67 seat in 2024, but Glynn won a narrow 131-vote victory that same year. 

Other potential opportunities for Democrats include a district in Knoxville where Republican state Rep. Elaine Davis faces Democrat Bryan Goldberg, another 2024 rematch.

Democrats also plan to challenge a Clarksville seat, where Republican state Rep. Michael Lankford faces Democrat Allie Phillips. Phillips ran in 2024 against the late state Rep. Jeff Burkhart. Lankford was appointed in December to serve out the rest of Burkhart’s term after his death. 

Republicans also want to flip a seat in Nashville’s suburbs that Harris won with just over 50% of the vote. Democratic state Rep. Caleb Hemmer held the seat for the past four years, but he chose not to run this cycle. Democrat Mark Proctor faces Republican Bill Hancock.