Former Pinal Sheriff Lamb ekes out a win, Crane and Nez still too close to call

Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, a Republican, is on track to defeat Democrat Elizabeth Lee to represent Congressional District 5 in the U.S. House of Representatives. 

As of Friday, Lamb had secured 51% of the vote in the district to Lee’s 48%. A change in the lead is unlikely at this juncture: CD5 spans Pinal County, where 100% of the vote has been reported, and parts of Maricopa County, where only 2% of the vote remains uncounted. 

Lamb spent 8 years as the Pinal County Sheriff and built a political brand as an advocate for hardline immigration policies, frequently travelling to the Arizona state legislature to support proposals that sought to entangle the state in federal immigration enforcement efforts. Lee, a nurse and reproductive health expert, highlighted her career in healthcare to appeal to voters as the best advocate in Congress. 

The district is a deep-red stronghold that President Donald Trump won by 20 points two years ago. Lamb netted Trump’s endorsement, which helped propel him through the Republican primary. But the former county sheriff downplayed his link to the president on his campaign website ahead of the general election, in a bid to distance himself from Trump’s plummeting public approval ratings. The slim lead Lamb has nursed since Wednesday is itself a clear display of voter discontent with Republicans this election cycle; in previous elections, Democrats have failed to earn more than 41% of the vote in the district. 

Throughout the campaign to replace Congressman Andy Biggs, who left the district to launch an unsuccessful challenge against Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, Lamb was dogged by accusations of sexual misconduct against multiple women, even as he portrayed himself as a conservative candidate with traditional values. 

Also on Thursday, Republican Eli Crane maintained a razor-thin, 3,694 vote advantage over Democrat Jonathan Nez in Congressional District 2, yet another ruby-red district that has long been considered out of reach for Democrats. More than a third of voters in the district, which stretches across northern Arizona, are registered Republicans. 

Crane, who was first elected in 2022, has emphasized his conservative bonafides and career as a U.S. Navy SEAL to appeal to voters in the district. Nez sought to emphasize his work partnering with the Trump administration in his role as the former president of the Navajo Nation to prove that he can get results in Congress. The Democrat has sought to mobilize Native voters with his candidacy. Northern Arizona is home to multiple tribes, including a large swath of the Navajo Nation. This is the second time Nez has tried to unseat Crane; in 2024, the Democrat lost to Crane by more than 36,000 votes. 

The race to represent CD2 is likely headed to a recount. Arizona law mandates a recount in a race if a candidate is defeated by less than 0.5% of the total votes cast. Nez has begun fundraising in anticipation of potentially challenging the results of that recount in court. In a campaign email, the Democrat implored supporters to help him shore up his legal defense. 

“In a deep red seat that Trump won by 15 points, an Indigenous sheepherder from the Navajo Nation is standing on the verge of defeating one of Trump’s favorite members of Congress,”he wrote. “That’s why we need to finish strong and make sure we have the resources to fight back against any Republican attempts to sway this count.”