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Election nerds, unite

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Election nerds, unite

May 09, 2022 | 8:00 pm ET
By Kate Queram
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News From The States: Evening Wrap

We’re officially in the thick of election season, the most wonderful time of year for government nerds (it me). I’ve been away for a few days (missed you!), which means I have a ton to catch up on. Join me, won’t you?

The Big Takeaway

Seven statewide elections will kick off in the next eight days, including two — in West Virginia and Nebraska — on Tuesday. Voters in Nebraska will nominate candidates to replace former U.S. Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, a Republican who resigned in March after being convicted of lying to federal investigators. 

But the flashiest race by far is the GOP gubernatorial primary, currently a dead heat between University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen and Charles Herbster, a Donald Trump-endorsed candidate who possibly participated in the Jan. 6, 2021 riot, bankrolled 96% of his own campaign and is accused of groping eight women without their consent.

Election experts think Herbster has a 44% chance of winning, slightly better than Pillen, who’s second at 42%, per the Nebraska Examiner. State Sen. Brett Lindstrom is a distant third at 14%, according to Logan Phillips, a national political analyst whose projections are based on the most frequent outcome of 10,000 simulations. His website correctly tapped J.D. Vance as the winner of Ohio’s GOP Senate primary.

Nebraska GOP gubernatorial hopefuls Charles Herbster, Brett Lindstrom and Jim Pillen are exactly the same height when sitting on these specific stools. (This seems unlikely to affect the outcome of their race.) (Photo by Aaron Sanderford/Nebraska Examiner)
Nebraska GOP gubernatorial hopefuls Charles Herbster, Brett Lindstrom and Jim Pillen are exactly the same height when sitting on these specific stools. (This seems unlikely to affect the outcome of their race.) (Photo by Aaron Sanderford/Nebraska Examiner)

Herbster, a self-proclaimed political outsider whose supporters include entrenched politicians like Trump and U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, spent the final stretch of his campaign dismissing the sexual assault allegations against him as “fake news” and rallying voters with vague promises to enact (nonspecific) tax reform and ban sex education and (unspecified) textbooks. Pillen, a pig farmer, presented more specific policy plans, promising voters to cap school spending growth, shore up agricultural production and “end abortion.” 

Depending on overall turnout, the race could hinge on the final decisions of roughly 8,000 voters who switched their political party affiliation to participate in the primary. More than 5,000 of those are likely Democrats, according to statewide registration data — a “major wildcard” for the race, according to a political science professor at the University of Nebraska.

A different sort of election remained a wildcard in Virginia, where warring factions in the General Assembly are still keeping lawmakers from filling two vacant seats on the state Supreme Court. Theoretically, it’s a simple solution, even in a divided legislature — Republicans get one pick, and Democrats get another. But it’s harder in practice, officials told the Virginia Mercury.

The Supreme Court of Virginia, currently down two justices. (Photo by Parker Michels-Boyce for the Virginia Mercury)
The Supreme Court of Virginia, currently down two justices. (Photo by Parker Michels-Boyce for the Virginia Mercury)

“We are still talking, still being civil with one another, but the discussions continue,” said state Sen. Creigh Deeds, a Democrat and co-chair of the Senate judiciary committee. “And right now I don’t know if there is anything we can do to force the situation ahead.”

Lawmakers have squabbled over political appointees all year, but even against that contentious backdrop, there’s particularly little incentive for Republicans to negotiate on this issue. If lawmakers adjourn without approving nominees, Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin can tap his own judges without legislative input.

That would be a temporary solution — the justices would need to be confirmed by lawmakers in January — but it’s not without precedent. Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat, used the tactic to appoint a justice to the court in 2015. The GOP-controlled General Assembly replaced her in 2016.

Political rancor is also stalling election progress in Missouri, where Senate Republicans are too busy squabbling amongst themselves to approve new legislative maps or enact long-desired photo ID requirements for voting. Drama is always a mainstay in the final days of the state’s legislative session, officials said — but it’s never been as bad as this year, which culminated in a “crescendo of chaos” that fractured the GOP into a conservative caucus and a separate group aligned with Senate leadership, per the Missouri Independent.

The comic book version of Missouri Republicans. They have a gym there, apparently. (Illustration by Christos Georghiou/Adobe Stock)
The comic book version of Missouri Republicans. They have a gym there, apparently. (Illustration by Christos Georghiou/Adobe Stock)

It’s the type of schism that could derail legislative progress entirely in most states. But it’s unlikely to matter much in Missouri, where Republicans control every part of state government, meaning they can dither for weeks as long as they pull it together to pass “big-ticket” bills. Still, they haven’t made it easy on themselves, according to Senate Majority Leader Caleb Rowden. 

“What I tell folks is that it is rare that you don’t end up close to the same place at the end of the session, it’s just a matter of the path to get there,” he said. “This has been a painful path on certain days and weeks.”

Fight to the finish: 2022 Idaho primary election: Republican governor’s race features fierce political rivals(Nevada) Attorney leads in fundraising, endorsements in CD3 Republican primaryWomen on the ballot: Emerge Maryland sees jump in candidates this year(Wisconsin) Democrats hoping for better odds in 1st District congressional raceFormer Kansas Gov. Parkinson claims to have ‘Forrest Gumped’ his way to state’s top political job(Maine) Progressive legislators not seeking reelection say institutional barriers often prevent changeBehind the Citizens Alliance of Idaho PAC: a handful of people, mostly not from Idaho

Caught Our Eye

How do you know when your abortion ban has gone too far? When even anti-abortion groups don’t support it. That’s the case in Louisiana, where the state’s leading anti-choice organization said Friday it opposed a bill that would classify abortion (a medical procedure) as homicide.

“Our long-standing policy is that abortion-vulnerable women should not be treated as criminals,” Louisiana Right to Life said in a statement. “Instead, we should hold accountable the individuals performing the abortion or selling or providing the chemical abortion drugs.”

The group made its position clear two days after a House committee approved the proposal 7-2. There’s no way to know whether the statement will impact future votes, but since it didn’t come from a fetus, I’m guessing it probably won’t matter much to anti-abortion lawmakers.

From the Newsrooms

One Last Thing

A tiny Jack Russell terrier received a medal Sunday from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in recognition of his work detecting more than 200 undetonated Russian explosives.

Zelenskyy described the pup, named Patron — or “ammo” in Ukrainian — as a “small but very famous sapper,” or military engineer.

I do not mean to be dramatic but I would probably die for Patron. (Obligatory disclaimer: This cartoon dog is not Patron.) (via Giphy)
I do not mean to be dramatic but I would probably die for Patron. (Obligatory disclaimer: This cartoon dog is not Patron.) (via Giphy)

This edition of the Evening Wrap published on May 9, 2022. Subscribe here.

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