Election 2026: Competitive congressional races to watch in Ohio

Ohio’s competitive congressional races could play a role in determining which party holds power in the U.S. House. 

There are currently 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies in the U.S. House. Midterm elections typically favor the party that is not currently in power. 

“I think if the Democrats are on track to win the House, they’re probably coming out of Ohio with five seats, maybe six seats,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball. 

Ohio’s 7th Congressional district has become a competitive race with the Cook Political Report labeling it as a “toss-up.” 

Incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Max Miller is facing Democratic candidate Brian Poindexter.

Allegations of domestic violence against Miller caused several prominent Republicans to call for his resignation over the summer — a movement led by Miller’s ex-father-in-law, U.S. Sen. Bernie Moreno. Miller denies the allegations against him.

Miller, who has served in Congress since 2023, is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for allegations he “may have engaged in domestic violence and abuse or illegal drug use.”

The Northeast Ohio district begins just outside Cleveland and covers Medina and Wooster. 

“My guess is that if we did not have this controversy with Miller, he would still be in a somewhat competitive race,” Kondik said.  “I think he’d be favored, whereas now I don’t think he’s favored.”

Republicans currently hold 10 out of 15 Ohio U.S. Congressional districts, but the Ohio Redistricting Commission unanimously passed a new congressional map last year, increasing the Republican advantage in the state 12-3. 

“You have to take it in the context of the cycle,” Kondik said. “If this was 2024, different story, you probably would say that the Republicans are in good shape to (go) the whole 12-15.” 

U.S. Reps. Marcy Kaptur, Greg Landsman, and Emilia Sykes all have districts that are generally considered more favorable to Republicans than it was during the last election. President Donald Trump won Ohio by 11 percentage points in 2024. 

Ohio’s 9th Congressional District is a rematch of the 2024 election between incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur and Republican Derek Merrin. 

The race was so close two years ago that the outcome was not declared until weeks after the election. Kaptur beat Merrin by 0.7 percentage points in 2024 despite President Donald Trump winning the district by seven percentage points.

The Northwest Ohio district covers a small section of the Lake Erie coastline, including Sandusky and Toledo, before moving inward to the Michigan and Indiana borders. 

Kaptur has represented the Northwest Ohio congressional district since 1983 — making her the longest-serving woman in congressional history. 

Former Ohio state Rep. Derek Merrin served four terms as an Ohio state representative for the Toledo district from 2016 to 2025.

The Cook Political Report labeled the district as “lean Democrat.” 

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep Landsman is facing Republican Eric Conroy in Ohio’s 1st Congressional district, which includes Cincinnati, Warren County and borders Kentucky. 

Landsman has served in Congress since 2023 and Conroy is a former CIA officer. 

The Cook Political Report labeled the district as “likely Democrat.” 

“I think (Landsman) would be the lowest hanging fruit for Democrats to win,” Kondik said. 

Republican Carey Coleman is challenging Ohio Democratic U.S. Rep. Emilia Sykes for Ohio’s 13th congressional district, which includes Summit County and parts of Stark and Portage counties. 

Sykes has served in Congress since 2023 and Coleman is a former radio host.

The Cook Political Report labeled the district as “likely Democrat.” 

Incumbent Ohio Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Carey is running against Democratic candidate Don Leonard for Ohio’s 15th Congressional district, which includes parts of Franklin County and extends out near Dayton.

Carey has been in Congress since 2021 and Leonard previously taught regional and city planning at Ohio State University.

Incumbent Ohio Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Turner is competing against Democratic candidate Kristina Knickerbocker for Ohio’s 10th Congressional district, which includes the Dayton area.

Turner has held office since 2003 and Knickerbocker is an U.S. Air Force Veteran and oncology nurse practitioner.

The Cook Political Report labeled both of those races as “Lean Republican.”

“If you see Carey or Turner lose, you know the (Democratic) wave is really on,” Kondik said. 

Election Day is Nov. 3 and polls will be open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. 

Follow Ohio Capital Journal Reporter Megan Henry on X or on Bluesky.