Economists: Immigration is counteracting Ohio’s brain drain

A panel of economists overwhelmingly agreed that the influx of skilled immigrants is helping to ease the loss of highly educated native-born Ohioans. They were much more ambivalent about whether lower-skilled immigrants are depressing wages for everyone.

The issue of immigration is a hot one, with former President Donald Trump flooding the zone with inflammatory, often inaccurate statements about newcomers. 

But according to at least one pollster, the issue isn’t as urgent as seven others, including education, Social Security, and health care costs. Topping the list assembled in March by the Pew Research Center was strengthening the economy.

As it turns out, there’s an important nexus between immigration and strengthening the economy. 

There are 8.5 million vacant jobs in the United States, and about 50% of the supercharged growth in the recent job market has been attributed to the recent surge in migration. 

But that leaves the question of who is affected economically by immigration and how.

The panel of 19 Ohio economists was surveyed by Scioto Analysis. There was a clear consensus when they were asked whether they agreed that “An increase in the proportion of skilled immigrant workers has helped counteract human capital loss known as ‘brain drain’ in Ohio over the past 10 years.”

Seventeen agreed with that analysis, one disagreed and another was uncertain.

One of the economists who agreed, Curtis Reynolds of Kent State University, said immigration by skilled workers addressed a problem that is particularly acute in the region.

“For a long time, midwestern states have lost college-educated labor to other regions,” he wrote in the comments section of the survey. “In Ohio, at least, immigrants are somewhat more likely to have a bachelor’s degree (about 3 percentage points) and substantially more likely to have a graduate degree (about 12 percentage points) according to American Community Survey data.”

The panel was much more split on a thornier question: Do immigrants — many of whom are willing to work for relatively low wages — depress the pay of everybody?

Opinions on the topic are mixed. Economists have found that in some employment sectors — particularly low-skilled ones — immigrants can depress wages. But immigration can also have the effect of growing the economy and adding to the overall number of jobs. And immigrants often take jobs in sectors in which the native-born are uninterested, such as agriculture.

The panel of Ohio economists was asked whether it agreed that “International immigration has led to decreased wages for low-skill workers in Ohio over the past ten years.” One agreed, 11 disagreed and seven were uncertain.

In disagreeing with that proposition, Jonathan Andreas of Bluffton University acknowledged that it involves a lot of nuance.

“There is a lot of research on this type of scenario and some does show that low-skilled immigration reduces low-skill wages,” he said. “But most research shows that native-born workers mostly switch to higher-paying jobs and most of the people who stay in low-wage jobs are immigrants themselves, so it PROBABLY benefits most low-skill, native-born workers a bit, but it could go either way for them and they certainly don’t benefit as much as everyone else.”

In saying he was uncertain, Bob Gitter of Ohio Wesleyan University also recognized that nuance.

“To some extent, (immigrants) may take the place of jobs like roofers and busboys, but the unskilled immigrants increase the demand for other products,” he said. “Probably close to no net effect.”