‘A dumb mistake’: NC congressional candidate banned and fined for prediction market bet

Every political candidate likes to believe they’re a winner, and Laurie Buckhout is no different. But the Republican nominee for North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District took things a little too far when she placed a bet on herself on the prediction market Kalshi to win November’s midterm election.

Buckhout is in a rematch with incumbent Democrat U.S. Rep. Don Davis, rated by some as the most vulnerable House Democrat in the country.

Kalshi announced disciplinary action against Buckhout and other politicians on Monday as part of a national investigation into insider trading.

Under the rules of the prediction market’s platform, if a trader “is a decision maker” or has any influence on the outcome of an event, “the trader is prohibited from attempting to enter into any trade, either directly or indirectly, on the market in such contracts.”

Kalshi’s compliance department found that Buckhout announced her candidacy for public office, and later wagered that she would win the congressional contest.

Buckhout purchased less than $1,000 worth of contracts related to her own candidacy, investigators said.

Buckhout, who cooperated with the inquiry into her trading activity, has agreed to a three-year suspension from Kalshi and a fine of $2,589.96.

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Buckhout said she was unaware her actions violated the rules.

“I bet on myself. Literally. It was a dumb mistake,” said Buckhout in a statement to NC Newsline. “As soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right. Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived.”

Kalshi handed a much stiffer penalty to former New York U.S. Rep. George Santos, who was permanently banned from using the platform. Santos allegedly placed bets on whether he himself would attend the State of the Union address in February. Santos, who did not cooperate in the investigation, was fined more than $70,000 by the company.