Could Trump’s diminished popularity in Kentucky affect how this year’s midterm races are run?

President Donald Trump may no longer be the silver bullet in Kentucky elections that Republicans once had as voters face pains from an ongoing war in Iran and rising gas and grocery prices. 

The president’s growing unpopularity in the Bluegrass may play into the central Kentucky 6th Congressional race in the weeks ahead as GOP and Democrats hope to use their messaging to sway voters in a general election. 

Ralph Alvarado, the Republican nominee in the election, removed mentions of the president, who had endorsed him in the primary earlier this year, NBC News first reported Aug. 25. The changes included removing a photo of Alvarado and Trump from the homepage and referring to himself as a candidate for “independent leadership” when he once called himself an “America First fighter.”

As of Friday morning, the media page on Alvarado’s campaign site does still include a photo of the candidate and Trump. 

Months ago, Trump’s endorsements did well in Republican primaries. In Kentucky, Trump-backed Ed Gallrein defeated incumbent firebrand U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie in the 4th Congressional District by 10 points. Trump’s late-hour endorsements of Alvarado and U.S. Rep. Andy Barr in the Senate race led to both candidates sailing to comfortable leads in May. 

However, polling shows Trump’s approval underwater in many states, including states he has won in past elections like Kentucky. A YouGov/Economist projection released Aug. 21 showed the president’s job approval rating negative in all but three states. Kentucky was at -13 points in the findings. 

Reacting to the NBC story, the campaign for the Democratic nominee, Zach Dembo, said the move by Alvarado was an attempt “to try and paper over his real record” on the heels of a poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee saying Alvarado and Dembo are tied. DCCC has added the 6th District to its “Red to Blue” list, meaning it’s a priority race for funding and support. 

“If this is how Ralph treats his friends, imagine how quickly he will sell us out when it’s convenient,” Dembo said in a statement. “My opponent has proven he is just another two-faced politician who will say anything to try and get elected.”

Andy Westberry, a spokesman for Alvarado said in a statement the campaign has “proudly touted the endorsement” from the president and pointed to the photo of Trump and Alvarado on the site. 

“It’s no surprise this Biden alum is desperately trying to change the conversation,” Westberry said, referring to Dembo’s work as an attorney in the Justice Department during the Biden administration.

Morgan Eaves, the executive director of the Kentucky Democratic Party, said Trump’s lower approval rating is a reaction of voters to “the economic reality that is Trump’s America.” Since Trump began war in Iran, gas prices have gone up, increasing other costs like groceries.

“They’re being faced with the fact that, shockingly, it’s not popular to make those decisions, and so now you’re kind of seeing them play cleanup,” Eaves said of Republicans. “But voters aren’t stupid; they’ve already branded themselves. They’ve already made their views clear, and we’re going to continue to make sure voters don’t forget that.”

Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Ward, of Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District, said Trump’s approval ratings are a “harbinger of the fall election.” Trump won the 6th Congressional District by 15 points in 2024, and if this “is a place where you have to downplay Trump, imagine the districts where he only won by five to 10 points,” Ward added. 

Kentucky Republicans are not so easily swayed. Adam Hope, the spokesperson for the Republican Party of Kentucky, said the state is still a place Trump has won by 30-plus points and “he still has a pretty significant level of support.” Trump won Kentucky’s electoral votes in 2016, 2020 and 2024. 

“Polling is polling at the end of the day, but you look at the historical presence that the president has had in Kentucky, and that’s not going away anytime soon,” Hope said. RPK is continuing to see engaged GOP voters in Kentucky, as the party maintains a registration edge statewide and counties flip from Democrat to Republican. 

Still, Barr and U.S. Rep. James Comer – who have both tied their campaigns tightly to Trump – feel comfortable enough to address Trump’s new effort to bring down beef prices, something opposed by the Kentucky Cattlemen’s Association. On Thursday, Comer, who is the undeclared but early favorite GOP candidate for governor in 2027, said he has not been happy with Trump’s tariffs and their effects on Kentucky agriculture.

“I’ve expressed my displeasure with the president and the secretary of agriculture, explained why we don’t buy beef from Argentina,” Comer said. “And when you talk about America First, if we’re going to have tariffs — we should stick with it one way or the other.”

Barr’s campaign website has also shifted between the primary and general elections. According to Wayback Machine archives, the Barr website switched a photo on the homepage of Barr and Trump to one of Barr and two of his children in July. The wording also changed from “Kentucky Tough. 100% America First. Trump-Endorsed” to “Kentucky Tough, Kentucky First, Always.” As of Saturday, Barr’s homepage does note that the congressman was the first member of the Kentucky congressional delegation to endorse Trump and that he was the Kentucky chairman for Trump’s 2024 primary campaign.

Alex Bellizzi, a spokesman for Barr’s campaign, said “Kentuckians know that Andy Barr is proud to have President Trump’s endorsement” and the congressman “can’t wait to keep fighting for Kentucky alongside President Trump as our next U.S. Senator.”

Trey Grayson, a former Republican secretary of state, said “all good candidates pay attention to the political environment.” The array of voters candidates must reach in a closed primary election, with just members of their party, is different from a general election. As of July, independent and third-party voters make up about 12% of voters in the 6th District who will also be able to vote for Alvarado or Dembo for the first time. 

Grayson said one thing Republicans do have going for them this election cycle is that Democrats are still unpopular with voters. 

With how it is configured, the 6th District is still “a pretty good Republican district,” Grayson said. Anchored by Lexington, one of the state’s urban areas, it’s surrounded by rural counties. 

“He’s run before. He’s won before. He’s used to navigating some of this,” Grayson said of Alvarado. 

Kentucky’s general election is Tuesday, Nov. 3.